UEFA Europa Conference League
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Trnava
📊 Our Prediction
Draw
60% confidence
Over 2.5 - 4%
BTTS - 9%
🎯 Best Pick
Draw
High draw probability
⚠️ Market disagrees
- bookies say 28%
⚠️ AIs disagree
▸ Show 2 alternatives
Under 2.5 Goals
Low scoring expectation
No Both Teams Score
Low BTTS rate
🤖 AI Match Analysis
Both teams have a low scoring record with 0 goals scored and conceded in their last match. The Poisson model probabilities also suggest a low scoring match. The head-to-head record shows a 0-0 draw in their previous match. Considering the low attacking threat and high defensive strength of both teams, a draw is likely. The key player impact is minimal in this match as no significant injuries or suspensions are reported. The H2H significance is high as the teams have recently played each other.
Top Tip
The Draw is the strongest pick due to the high draw probability and low scoring expectation
📈 Probability Breakdown
CSKA 1948 win20.0%
Draw60.0%
Spartak Trnava win20.0%
Over 1.5 goals12.8%
Over 2.5 goals3.7%
Over 3.5 goals0.3%
Both teams to score8.7%
🎯 Full Market Board
Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.
Under 1.5 Goals
87.8%
Home or Draw (1X)
80.0%
Draw or Away (X2)
80.0%
Match Result (11)
Home or Draw (1X)80.0%
Draw or Away (X2)80.0%
Draw59.9%
Draw No Bet - Home50.0%
Draw No Bet - Away50.0%
Home or Away (12)40.1%
Exactly 1 Goal32.9%
Home Win20.0%
Away Win20.0%
Both Halves Over 0.56.7%
Goal in Both Halves6.7%
Goals Over/Under (23)
Under 4.5 Goals100.0%
Under 5.5 Goals100.0%
Under 3.5 Goals99.7%
Under 2.5 Goals97.7%
Under 1.5 Goals87.8%
Total Goals Even65.1%
Under 0.5 Goals54.9%
Exactly 0 Goals54.9%
Over 0.5 Goals45.1%
1-3 Goals44.8%
1-2 Goals42.8%
Total Goals Odd34.9%
Over 1.5 Goals12.2%
2-4 Goals12.2%
2-3 Goals11.9%
Exactly 2 Goals9.9%
Over 2.5 Goals2.3%
3-4 Goals2.3%
Exactly 3 Goals2.0%
Over 3.5 Goals0.3%
4+ Goals0.3%
Over 4.5 Goals0.0%
Over 5.5 Goals0.0%
BTTS & Defence (8)
No Both Teams Score (NG)93.3%
Home Clean Sheet74.1%
Away Clean Sheet74.1%
Home Team to Score25.9%
Away Team to Score25.9%
Home Win to Nil19.2%
Away Win to Nil19.2%
Both Teams Score (GG)6.7%
Team Goals (14)
Home Exactly 074.1%
Away Exactly 074.1%
Home Over 0.525.9%
Away Over 0.525.9%
Home Exactly 122.2%
Away Exactly 122.2%
Home Over 1.53.7%
Away Over 1.53.7%
Home Exactly 23.3%
Away Exactly 23.3%
Home Over 2.50.4%
Away Over 2.50.4%
Home 3+ Goals0.4%
Away 3+ Goals0.4%
Handicap & Margin (12)
Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%
Home to win by 117.2%
Away to win by 117.2%
Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%
Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%
Home to win by 22.5%
Away to win by 22.5%
Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%
Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%
Home to win by 3+0.3%
Away to win by 3+0.3%
Combos (15)
No BTTS & Under 2.592.7%
Draw & Under 2.559.8%
Home & No BTTS19.2%
Away & No BTTS19.2%
Home & Under 2.518.9%
Away & Under 2.518.9%
Draw & BTTS5.1%
BTTS & Under 2.54.9%
BTTS & Over 2.51.8%
Home & Over 2.51.1%
Away & Over 2.51.1%
Home & BTTS0.8%
Away & BTTS0.8%
No BTTS & Over 2.50.5%
Draw & Over 2.50.1%
Half-Time & HT/FT (20)
HT Under 1.596.9%
HT Draw77.7%
HT Under 0.576.3%
Equal Goals Each Half59.9%
HT/FT Draw/Draw57.4%
HT Over 0.523.7%
2nd Half More Goals22.4%
1st Half More Goals17.7%
HT Home Win11.1%
HT Away Win11.1%
HT/FT Draw/Away10.2%
HT/FT Draw/Home10.2%
HT/FT Away/Away9.8%
HT/FT Home/Home9.8%
HT Over 1.53.1%
HT Both Teams Score1.6%
HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%
HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%
HT/FT Away/Home0.1%
HT/FT Home/Away0.1%
How we predict:
Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.