Russia · Premier League

CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

CSKA Moscow 85.0% Draw 8.7% Rodina Moskva 6.3%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to CSKA Moscow: 14 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.90 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

CSKA Moscow

W D D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Rodina Moskva

L D W L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 2.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

CSKA Moscow win85.0%

Draw8.7%

Rodina Moskva win6.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.7%

Over 3.5 goals82.5%

Both teams to score74.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.9%

Home or Draw (1X)90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.588.9%

Goal in Both Halves88.9%

Home or Away (12)88.4%

Home Win82.1%

Draw or Away (X2)14.2%

Draw7.9%

Draw No Bet - Away7.1%

Away Win6.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.3%

Over 3.5 Goals79.5%

4+ Goals79.5%

Over 4.5 Goals65.3%

Under 5.5 Goals51.2%

Over 5.5 Goals48.8%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd48.1%

Under 4.5 Goals34.7%

2-4 Goals29.0%

3-4 Goals24.0%

Under 3.5 Goals20.5%

1-3 Goals16.5%

2-3 Goals14.8%

Under 2.5 Goals10.7%

Exactly 3 Goals9.8%

1-2 Goals6.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.1%

Away Team to Score72.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.3%

Home Clean Sheet23.8%

Home Win to Nil23.5%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Home Over 2.578.0%

Home 3+ Goals78.0%

Away Over 0.572.6%

Away Over 1.539.3%

Away Exactly 133.3%

Away Exactly 023.8%

Away Exactly 223.3%

Away Over 2.516.0%

Away 3+ Goals16.0%

Home Exactly 211.8%

Home Exactly 15.3%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away74.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away59.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home53.5%

Home to win by 3+53.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away42.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)36.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home36.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away14.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.0%

Away to win by 14.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.9%

BTTS & Over 2.569.8%

Home & BTTS58.6%

Home & No BTTS23.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.4%

Draw & BTTS7.6%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Away & Over 2.55.6%

Away & BTTS5.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.7%

HT Over 1.573.6%

HT Home Win69.5%

HT/FT Home/Home66.2%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score40.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.4%

HT Draw19.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Away Win10.8%

HT Under 0.57.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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