UEFA Europa League

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Kick-off 19:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

CSKA Sofia 5.1% Draw 19.6% Qarabag 75.3%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 28%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 63%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 18.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

63%

Market does not fully agree

CSKA Sofia

D W W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Qarabag

D W W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 6:0 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0

Head to head · last 1

CSKA Sofia 0wins ·1 draws ·Qarabag 0wins

CSKA Sofia 0-0 QarabagJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

CSKA Sofia win5.1%

Draw19.6%

Qarabag win75.3%

Over 1.5 goals69.7%

Over 2.5 goals42.6%

Over 3.5 goals21.8%

Both teams to score28.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

90.7%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)93.9%

Draw No Bet - Away92.6%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Away Win76.2%

Both Halves Over 0.548.0%

Goal in Both Halves48.0%

Home or Draw (1X)23.8%

Exactly 1 Goal22.0%

Draw17.8%

Draw No Bet - Home7.4%

Home Win6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.6%

Over 0.5 Goals90.7%

Under 4.5 Goals90.6%

Under 3.5 Goals78.3%

1-3 Goals69.0%

Over 1.5 Goals68.8%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 2.5 Goals57.4%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals48.2%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals42.6%

3-4 Goals33.2%

Under 1.5 Goals31.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.2%

Over 3.5 Goals21.7%

4+ Goals21.7%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 4.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals9.3%

Exactly 0 Goals9.2%

Over 5.5 Goals3.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)72.5%

Away Clean Sheet68.2%

Away Win to Nil58.9%

Home Team to Score31.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)27.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Exactly 068.2%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Home Over 0.531.8%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.1%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Over 1.55.7%

Home Exactly 25.0%

Home Over 2.50.7%

Home 3+ Goals0.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away93.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)74.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home74.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.5%

Away to win by 126.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away26.0%

Away to win by 3+26.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home23.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw23.6%

Away to win by 223.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw5.1%

Home to win by 15.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.9%

Home to win by 20.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS58.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.550.3%

Away & Over 2.539.2%

Away & Under 2.536.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.1%

BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Away & BTTS17.2%

Draw & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS8.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Home & No BTTS4.3%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Home & Over 2.51.8%

Home & BTTS1.7%

Draw & Over 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.9%

HT Over 0.565.8%

HT Away Win53.3%

HT/FT Away/Away50.9%

2nd Half More Goals42.0%

HT Draw39.7%

HT Under 0.534.2%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.1%

Equal Goals Each Half27.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.3%

HT Both Teams Score9.4%

HT Home Win6.9%

HT/FT Home/Home3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

CSKA Sofia win10%

Draw45%

Qarabag win45%

AdviceWinner : Qarabag

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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