South-Korea · K League 1

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC

Kick-off 06:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Daejeon Citizen 67.6% Draw 19.6% Gwangju FC 12.8%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Daejeon Citizen: 8 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Daejeon Citizen 2 wins, 0 draws, Gwangju FC 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.5%

Exact-score model probability

Daejeon Citizen

D D L L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Gwangju FC

L D D L L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Daejeon Citizen 2wins ·0 draws ·Gwangju FC 0wins

Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Gwangju FCAug 2, 2026

Daejeon Citizen 5-0 Gwangju FCMay 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Daejeon Citizen win67.6%

Draw19.6%

Gwangju FC win12.8%

Over 1.5 goals86.4%

Over 2.5 goals66.0%

Over 3.5 goals44.2%

Both teams to score58.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.6%

Home or Away (12)

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)93.7%

Draw No Bet - Home93.1%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Home Win81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.566.8%

Goal in Both Halves66.8%

Draw or Away (X2)18.2%

Draw12.2%

Exactly 1 Goal11.1%

Draw No Bet - Away6.9%

Away Win6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals86.8%

Over 1.5 Goals85.5%

Under 4.5 Goals74.0%

Over 2.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals59.5%

Under 3.5 Goals55.3%

1-3 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals44.7%

4+ Goals44.7%

2-3 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.5%

1-2 Goals30.0%

Over 4.5 Goals26.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals19.0%

Under 1.5 Goals14.5%

Over 5.5 Goals13.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.5%

Home Clean Sheet52.3%

Home Win to Nil49.1%

Away Team to Score47.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.5%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Away Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.6%

Home Over 1.576.5%

Home Over 2.552.6%

Home 3+ Goals52.6%

Away Exactly 052.3%

Away Over 0.547.4%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 117.1%

Away Over 1.513.7%

Away Exactly 210.9%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Away Over 2.52.8%

Away 3+ Goals2.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.7%

Home to win by 3+39.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.0%

Home to win by 222.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 119.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 14.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 21.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.560.0%

Home & No BTTS49.1%

BTTS & Over 2.538.7%

Home & BTTS32.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.5%

Home & Under 2.521.5%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

Draw & BTTS9.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & Over 2.53.3%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Away & BTTS3.1%

Away & No BTTS2.9%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.7%

HT Home Win61.7%

HT/FT Home/Home58.8%

HT Under 1.554.2%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT Over 1.545.8%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Draw29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.2%

HT Under 0.521.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.0%

HT Both Teams Score18.0%

HT Away Win8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Away/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions