USA · Major League Soccer

DC United vs Nashville SC

Full time · 2:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

DC United 46.6% Draw 35.6% Nashville SC 17.8%

Over 2.5 - 24% BTTS - 31%

✓ Pick was correct (2:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 57%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 82.2% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 17.8% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Nashville SC: 10 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

82.2%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

17.8%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

57%

Market does not fully agree

DC United

W D D W D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Nashville SC

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 1

DC United 0wins ·1 draws ·Nashville SC 0wins

DC United 2-2 Nashville SCMay 10, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

DC United win46.6%

Draw35.6%

Nashville SC win17.8%

Over 1.5 goals51.6%

Over 2.5 goals23.8%

Over 3.5 goals9.0%

Both teams to score30.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

91.0%

HT Under 1.5

82.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

81.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.7%

Draw No Bet - Home71.4%

Home or Away (12)67.4%

Draw or Away (X2)51.8%

Home Win48.2%

Draw32.6%

Both Halves Over 0.532.0%

Goal in Both Halves32.0%

Exactly 1 Goal31.3%

Draw No Bet - Away28.6%

Away Win19.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.2%

Under 4.5 Goals97.2%

Under 3.5 Goals91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals81.4%

Under 2.5 Goals76.2%

1-3 Goals72.3%

1-2 Goals57.6%

Total Goals Even51.7%

Over 1.5 Goals50.1%

Under 1.5 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd48.3%

2-4 Goals47.2%

2-3 Goals41.0%

Exactly 2 Goals26.3%

Over 2.5 Goals23.8%

3-4 Goals20.9%

Under 0.5 Goals18.6%

Exactly 0 Goals18.6%

Exactly 3 Goals14.7%

Over 3.5 Goals9.0%

4+ Goals9.0%

Over 4.5 Goals2.8%

Over 5.5 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)70.7%

Home Team to Score66.7%

Home Clean Sheet56.0%

Away Team to Score44.0%

Home Win to Nil37.4%

Away Clean Sheet33.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)29.3%

Away Win to Nil14.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.566.7%

Away Exactly 056.0%

Away Over 0.544.0%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 033.3%

Away Exactly 132.5%

Home Over 1.530.1%

Home Exactly 220.2%

Away Over 1.511.5%

Home Over 2.510.0%

Home 3+ Goals10.0%

Away Exactly 29.4%

Away Over 2.52.1%

Away 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away79.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.8%

Home to win by 127.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 213.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.5%

Home to win by 3+6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.564.4%

Home & No BTTS37.4%

Home & Under 2.531.8%

Draw & Under 2.530.5%

BTTS & Over 2.517.5%

Home & Over 2.516.4%

Away & No BTTS14.6%

Away & Under 2.513.9%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

Home & BTTS10.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.3%

Away & Over 2.55.4%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.582.5%

HT Draw53.2%

HT Over 0.553.0%

HT Under 0.547.0%

2nd Half More Goals37.7%

Equal Goals Each Half34.1%

HT Home Win31.9%

1st Half More Goals28.2%

HT/FT Home/Home27.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw25.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.2%

HT Over 1.517.5%

HT Away Win14.9%

HT/FT Away/Away10.0%

HT Both Teams Score9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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