England · Championship

Derby vs Birmingham

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Derby 18.0% Draw 22.9% Birmingham 59.1%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Birmingham: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.9%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L L W L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Birmingham

L D D W L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 9:14 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win18.0%

Draw22.9%

Birmingham win59.1%

Over 1.5 goals84.5%

Over 2.5 goals62.6%

Over 3.5 goals40.4%

Both teams to score60.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.8%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.8%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Draw No Bet - Away75.9%

Both Halves Over 0.563.6%

Goal in Both Halves63.6%

Away Win60.3%

Home or Draw (1X)39.6%

Draw No Bet - Home24.1%

Draw20.4%

Home Win19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal12.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals89.2%

Over 1.5 Goals83.2%

Under 4.5 Goals77.6%

Over 2.5 Goals62.6%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 3.5 Goals59.6%

1-3 Goals55.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.9%

Over 3.5 Goals40.4%

4+ Goals40.4%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals37.4%

1-2 Goals33.4%

Over 4.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.6%

Under 1.5 Goals16.8%

Over 5.5 Goals10.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.9%

Home Team to Score67.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.0%

Away Clean Sheet32.9%

Away Win to Nil28.9%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.9%

Home Over 0.567.1%

Away Over 1.562.4%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 2.535.5%

Away 3+ Goals35.5%

Home Exactly 032.9%

Home Over 1.530.5%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.5%

Home Exactly 220.3%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Home Over 2.510.2%

Home 3+ Goals10.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)60.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home39.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.0%

Away to win by 123.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.1%

Away to win by 3+19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.2%

Away to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 25.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

Home to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.7%

Away & Over 2.543.1%

Away & BTTS31.4%

Away & No BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.1%

Away & Under 2.517.3%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Home & Over 2.512.3%

Home & BTTS11.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Home & No BTTS8.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.6%

HT Under 1.557.4%

HT Away Win45.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.6%

HT/FT Away/Away39.2%

HT Draw35.9%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.2%

HT Under 0.523.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.0%

HT Home Win18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.3%

HT/FT Home/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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