England · Championship

Derby vs Bolton

Kick-off 21:00 · Fri, Nov 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Derby 10.4% Draw 19.7% Bolton 69.9%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Bolton: 2 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L L D L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:15 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.5

Bolton

W L L D L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win10.4%

Draw19.7%

Bolton win69.9%

Over 1.5 goals82.6%

Over 2.5 goals59.9%

Over 3.5 goals37.5%

Both teams to score50.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.6%

Away Team to Score

89.9%

Away Over 0.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)88.4%

Draw No Bet - Away86.0%

Home or Away (12)82.4%

Away Win70.9%

Both Halves Over 0.561.6%

Goal in Both Halves61.6%

Home or Draw (1X)29.1%

Draw17.5%

Draw No Bet - Home14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.0%

Home Win11.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.6%

Over 1.5 Goals81.5%

Under 4.5 Goals79.9%

Under 3.5 Goals62.5%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals59.8%

1-3 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.0%

Under 2.5 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.5%

4+ Goals37.5%

1-2 Goals35.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals20.1%

Under 1.5 Goals18.5%

Over 5.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.9%

Home Team to Score55.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.7%

Away Clean Sheet44.7%

Away Win to Nil40.2%

Home Clean Sheet10.1%

Home Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.9%

Away Over 1.566.8%

Home Over 0.555.3%

Home Exactly 044.7%

Away Over 2.540.2%

Away 3+ Goals40.2%

Home Exactly 136.0%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 123.1%

Home Over 1.519.3%

Home Exactly 214.5%

Away Exactly 010.1%

Home Over 2.54.8%

Home 3+ Goals4.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home73.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home52.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home29.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away26.5%

Away to win by 3+26.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.3%

Away to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.1%

Away to win by 221.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.2%

Home to win by 18.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.6%

Home to win by 22.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.7%

Home to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.548.7%

BTTS & Over 2.541.4%

Away & No BTTS40.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.8%

Away & BTTS30.7%

Away & Under 2.522.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.5%

Draw & BTTS13.0%

Draw & Under 2.512.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Over 2.56.4%

Home & BTTS5.9%

Home & No BTTS5.6%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.2%

HT Under 1.559.3%

HT Away Win52.2%

HT/FT Away/Away47.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.7%

HT Draw34.9%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.8%

Equal Goals Each Half23.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.0%

HT Both Teams Score19.6%

HT Home Win12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Home/Home6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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