England · Championship

Derby vs Cardiff

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Derby 11.5% Draw 12.0% Cardiff 76.5%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L L L

Form 0-0-3 Goals 3:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Cardiff

D W

Form 1-1-0 Goals 4:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win11.5%

Draw12.0%

Cardiff win76.5%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals81.9%

Both teams to score80.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.3%

Away Over 1.5

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.4%

Goal in Both Halves88.4%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Draw No Bet - Away86.6%

Draw or Away (X2)86.3%

Away Win75.1%

Home or Draw (1X)22.7%

Draw No Bet - Home13.4%

Home Win11.6%

Draw11.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.3%

Over 3.5 Goals80.1%

4+ Goals80.1%

Over 4.5 Goals65.5%

Under 5.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Total Goals Even48.9%

Over 5.5 Goals48.8%

Under 4.5 Goals34.5%

2-4 Goals30.2%

3-4 Goals24.8%

Under 3.5 Goals19.9%

1-3 Goals17.4%

2-3 Goals15.6%

Exactly 3 Goals10.2%

Under 2.5 Goals9.7%

1-2 Goals7.2%

Exactly 2 Goals5.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.0%

Home Team to Score80.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.1%

Away Clean Sheet17.4%

Away Win to Nil17.1%

Home Clean Sheet1.8%

Home Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.0%

Away Over 1.588.7%

Home Over 0.580.4%

Away Over 2.574.0%

Away 3+ Goals74.0%

Home Over 1.550.3%

Home Exactly 130.1%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Home Over 2.524.4%

Home 3+ Goals24.4%

Home Exactly 017.4%

Away Exactly 214.7%

Away Exactly 17.3%

Away Exactly 01.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)90.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home82.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)75.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home70.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away59.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home55.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away42.8%

Away to win by 3+42.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home38.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away27.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)22.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home22.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 217.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 115.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away15.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw8.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.6%

Home to win by 16.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.2%

Home to win by 23.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.8%

Home to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.7%

Away & Over 2.571.2%

Away & BTTS58.0%

Away & No BTTS17.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Draw & BTTS10.8%

Home & Over 2.510.5%

Home & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & No BTTS1.5%

Home & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.4%

HT Over 1.572.8%

HT Away Win61.7%

HT/FT Away/Away56.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.9%

HT Both Teams Score45.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.2%

HT Draw22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT Home Win15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.8%

HT Under 0.57.6%

HT/FT Home/Home6.7%

HT/FT Home/Away5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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