England · League Cup

Derby vs Lincoln

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Derby 20.1% Draw 22.4% Lincoln 57.5%

Over 2.5 - 67% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 75%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

75%

Market agrees with this pick

Derby

Form 0-0-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Lincoln

No recent results stored yet

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win20.1%

Draw22.4%

Lincoln win57.5%

Over 1.5 goals87.2%

Over 2.5 goals67.2%

Over 3.5 goals45.6%

Both teams to score65.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.8%

Draw or Away (X2)78.7%

Draw No Bet - Away73.4%

Both Halves Over 0.567.2%

Goal in Both Halves67.2%

Away Win58.6%

Home or Draw (1X)41.4%

Draw No Bet - Home26.6%

Home Win21.3%

Draw20.1%

Exactly 1 Goal10.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.3%

Over 1.5 Goals86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals73.3%

Over 2.5 Goals67.2%

2-4 Goals59.2%

Under 3.5 Goals54.5%

1-3 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.5%

4+ Goals45.5%

2-3 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals32.8%

1-2 Goals29.6%

Over 4.5 Goals26.7%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.8%

Under 1.5 Goals14.0%

Over 5.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.9%

Home Team to Score71.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.2%

Away Clean Sheet28.2%

Away Win to Nil25.1%

Home Clean Sheet11.1%

Home Win to Nil8.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.9%

Home Over 0.571.7%

Away Over 1.564.5%

Away Over 2.537.7%

Away 3+ Goals37.7%

Home Over 1.536.1%

Home Exactly 135.7%

Home Exactly 028.2%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 124.4%

Home Exactly 222.6%

Home Over 2.513.5%

Home 3+ Goals13.5%

Away Exactly 011.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home63.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away36.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.1%

Away to win by 122.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.9%

Away to win by 3+18.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 217.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.8%

Home to win by 25.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%

Home to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.1%

Away & Over 2.544.1%

Away & BTTS33.5%

Away & No BTTS25.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.0%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Home & Over 2.514.8%

Away & Under 2.514.4%

Home & BTTS13.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.1%

Draw & Under 2.511.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Home & No BTTS8.0%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.0%

HT Under 1.553.8%

HT Over 1.546.2%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT Away Win44.7%

HT/FT Away/Away38.1%

HT Draw34.7%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half22.1%

HT Under 0.521.0%

HT Home Win20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.8%

HT/FT Home/Home12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Derby win50%

Draw50%

Lincoln win0%

AdviceDouble chance : Derby or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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