England · Championship

Derby vs Norwich

Kick-off 20:45 · Tue, Nov 3

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Derby 14.1% Draw 22.8% Norwich 63.1%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Norwich: 3 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L D L L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Norwich

W W L L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win14.1%

Draw22.8%

Norwich win63.1%

Over 1.5 goals80.4%

Over 2.5 goals56.4%

Over 3.5 goals34.0%

Both teams to score52.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.3%

Away Team to Score

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.6%

Draw No Bet - Away80.7%

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Away Win64.3%

Both Halves Over 0.558.8%

Goal in Both Halves58.8%

Home or Draw (1X)35.7%

Draw20.3%

Draw No Bet - Home19.3%

Exactly 1 Goal15.5%

Home Win15.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.7%

Under 5.5 Goals92.2%

Under 4.5 Goals82.5%

Over 1.5 Goals79.2%

Under 3.5 Goals66.1%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.7%

Over 2.5 Goals56.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.2%

Under 2.5 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.4%

Over 3.5 Goals33.9%

4+ Goals33.9%

Exactly 2 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.8%

Over 4.5 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals7.8%

Under 0.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 0 Goals5.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.1%

Home Team to Score58.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.7%

Away Clean Sheet41.1%

Away Win to Nil35.8%

Home Clean Sheet12.8%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.1%

Away Over 1.560.8%

Home Over 0.558.9%

Home Exactly 041.1%

Home Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 2.533.7%

Away 3+ Goals33.7%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.4%

Home Over 1.522.4%

Home Exactly 216.3%

Away Exactly 012.8%

Home Over 2.56.1%

Home 3+ Goals6.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)64.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away40.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)35.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home35.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.2%

Away to win by 124.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.4%

Away to win by 3+20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.6%

Away to win by 219.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 110.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.7%

Home to win by 23.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.542.3%

BTTS & Over 2.541.7%

Away & No BTTS35.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.0%

Away & BTTS28.5%

Away & Under 2.521.9%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

Draw & Under 2.514.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

Home & Over 2.58.6%

Home & BTTS7.8%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.4%

HT Under 1.561.8%

HT Away Win47.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT/FT Away/Away41.9%

HT Over 1.538.2%

HT Draw37.4%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.526.6%

Equal Goals Each Half24.3%

HT Both Teams Score19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.3%

HT Home Win15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Home/Home8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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