England · Championship

Derby vs Stoke City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Derby 20.8% Draw 21.5% Stoke City 57.7%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Stoke City: 3 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L D D D L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 3:10 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Stoke City

L W W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win20.8%

Draw21.5%

Stoke City win57.7%

Over 1.5 goals89.5%

Over 2.5 goals71.6%

Over 3.5 goals50.8%

Both teams to score68.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

90.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)78.1%

Draw No Bet - Away72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.570.6%

Goal in Both Halves70.6%

Away Win58.7%

Home or Draw (1X)41.3%

Draw No Bet - Home27.1%

Home Win21.9%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal9.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.4%

Under 5.5 Goals82.9%

Over 2.5 Goals71.6%

Under 4.5 Goals68.6%

2-4 Goals57.0%

Over 3.5 Goals50.8%

4+ Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals49.2%

1-3 Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.7%

Over 4.5 Goals31.4%

Under 2.5 Goals28.4%

1-2 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.2%

Home Team to Score74.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.5%

Away Clean Sheet25.1%

Away Win to Nil22.7%

Home Clean Sheet9.7%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.2%

Home Over 0.574.8%

Away Over 1.567.6%

Away Over 2.541.2%

Away 3+ Goals41.2%

Home Over 1.540.1%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 025.1%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 122.6%

Home Over 2.516.2%

Home 3+ Goals16.2%

Away Exactly 09.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 121.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.0%

Away to win by 3+20.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 217.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.2%

Home to win by 3+3.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.7%

Away & Over 2.546.3%

Away & BTTS36.0%

Away & No BTTS22.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.5%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Home & Over 2.516.2%

Home & BTTS14.6%

Away & Under 2.512.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.9%

Draw & Under 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Away Win45.3%

HT/FT Away/Away38.5%

HT Draw33.2%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.1%

HT Home Win21.4%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.2%

HT/FT Home/Home12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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