England · Championship

Derby vs Swansea

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Derby 14.2% Draw 19.4% Swansea 66.4%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Swansea: 1 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

D L L L

Form 0-1-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 2

Swansea

D W L W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win14.2%

Draw19.4%

Swansea win66.4%

Over 1.5 goals88.6%

Over 2.5 goals70.1%

Over 3.5 goals48.9%

Both teams to score62.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.7%

Away Over 0.5

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.7%

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Draw No Bet - Away81.6%

Both Halves Over 0.569.4%

Goal in Both Halves69.4%

Away Win67.3%

Home or Draw (1X)32.6%

Draw No Bet - Home18.4%

Draw17.4%

Home Win15.2%

Exactly 1 Goal9.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals87.5%

Under 5.5 Goals84.2%

Under 4.5 Goals70.4%

Over 2.5 Goals70.0%

2-4 Goals57.9%

Under 3.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals48.8%

4+ Goals48.8%

1-3 Goals48.4%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.7%

Under 2.5 Goals30.0%

Over 4.5 Goals29.6%

1-2 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals15.8%

Under 1.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.7%

Home Team to Score67.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.2%

Away Clean Sheet32.6%

Away Win to Nil29.9%

Home Clean Sheet8.2%

Home Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.7%

Away Over 1.571.2%

Home Over 0.567.3%

Away Over 2.545.5%

Away 3+ Goals45.5%

Home Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 032.6%

Home Over 1.530.8%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Home Exactly 220.5%

Away Exactly 120.5%

Home Over 2.510.4%

Home 3+ Goals10.4%

Away Exactly 08.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home73.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)67.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home54.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away45.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away26.2%

Away to win by 3+26.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.6%

Away to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 219.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.7%

Home to win by 19.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.3%

Away & Over 2.552.3%

Away & BTTS37.4%

Away & No BTTS29.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.7%

Away & Under 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

Home & Over 2.510.5%

Draw & Under 2.510.2%

Home & BTTS9.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Home & No BTTS5.5%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.4%

HT Under 1.551.5%

HT Away Win51.1%

HT Over 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

HT/FT Away/Away45.6%

HT Draw32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score26.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.0%

HT Home Win16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.0%

HT/FT Home/Home8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions