England · Championship

Derby vs West Brom

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Derby 14.3% Draw 12.4% West Brom 73.3%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-4 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to West Brom: 4 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

West Brom

W D L L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win14.3%

Draw12.4%

West Brom win73.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.8%

Over 2.5 goals94.8%

Over 3.5 goals86.8%

Both teams to score86.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.1%

Goal in Both Halves

91.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.1%

Goal in Both Halves91.1%

Home or Away (12)85.6%

Draw No Bet - Away83.5%

Draw or Away (X2)83.1%

Away Win71.5%

Home or Draw (1X)25.7%

Draw No Bet - Home16.5%

Home Win14.1%

Draw11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals92.1%

Over 3.5 Goals84.3%

4+ Goals84.3%

Over 4.5 Goals72.1%

Over 5.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Under 5.5 Goals43.2%

Under 4.5 Goals27.9%

2-4 Goals23.7%

3-4 Goals20.0%

Under 3.5 Goals15.7%

1-3 Goals12.7%

2-3 Goals11.5%

Under 2.5 Goals7.9%

Exactly 3 Goals7.8%

1-2 Goals4.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.7%

Home Team to Score84.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.4%

Away Clean Sheet12.3%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Home Clean Sheet1.5%

Home Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 1.589.4%

Home Over 0.584.9%

Away Over 2.576.2%

Away 3+ Goals76.2%

Home Over 1.559.5%

Home Over 2.533.2%

Home 3+ Goals33.2%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 125.4%

Away Exactly 213.2%

Home Exactly 012.3%

Away Exactly 16.3%

Away Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)90.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home83.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home71.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)56.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home56.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away56.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)40.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home40.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)40.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away40.2%

Away to win by 3+40.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home25.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away25.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 115.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away14.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.4%

Home to win by 17.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.7%

Home to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.0%

Away & Over 2.569.0%

Away & BTTS59.4%

Home & Over 2.513.3%

Home & BTTS12.8%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

Draw & BTTS11.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.8%

BTTS & Under 2.51.6%

Home & No BTTS1.3%

Home & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.0%

HT Over 1.577.2%

HT Away Win59.8%

HT/FT Away/Away54.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.7%

HT Both Teams Score51.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.8%

HT Draw22.1%

HT Home Win18.1%

Equal Goals Each Half15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.0%

HT/FT Home/Home8.3%

HT/FT Home/Away6.1%

HT Under 0.56.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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