England · Championship

Derby vs Wrexham

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Derby 31.0% Draw 28.2% Wrexham 40.8%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Wrexham: 5 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Derby

D D L L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:8 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Wrexham

W L D D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derby win31.0%

Draw28.2%

Wrexham win40.8%

Over 1.5 goals78.3%

Over 2.5 goals52.9%

Over 3.5 goals30.6%

Both teams to score57.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.8%

Draw or Away (X2)67.5%

Home or Draw (1X)57.7%

Draw No Bet - Away56.5%

Both Halves Over 0.556.1%

Goal in Both Halves56.1%

Draw No Bet - Home43.5%

Away Win42.3%

Home Win32.5%

Draw25.2%

Exactly 1 Goal17.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.9%

Under 5.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals84.9%

Over 1.5 Goals76.8%

Under 3.5 Goals69.4%

1-3 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.1%

2-3 Goals46.1%

1-2 Goals41.0%

3-4 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals30.6%

4+ Goals30.6%

Exactly 2 Goals23.9%

Under 1.5 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 0 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.8%

Home Team to Score72.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Away Clean Sheet27.6%

Home Clean Sheet22.2%

Away Win to Nil21.5%

Home Win to Nil16.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.8%

Home Over 0.572.4%

Away Over 1.544.3%

Home Over 1.536.9%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Home Exactly 027.6%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 222.9%

Away Exactly 022.2%

Away Over 2.519.2%

Away 3+ Goals19.2%

Home Over 2.514.0%

Home 3+ Goals14.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.5%

Away to win by 121.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.3%

Home to win by 29.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.1%

Away to win by 3+8.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.8%

Home to win by 3+4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.3%

Away & Over 2.526.2%

Away & No BTTS21.5%

Away & BTTS20.9%

Home & Over 2.519.5%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Draw & Under 2.518.0%

Home & BTTS16.4%

Away & Under 2.516.2%

Home & No BTTS16.1%

Home & Under 2.513.0%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.5%

HT Under 1.564.2%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT Draw40.8%

HT Over 1.535.8%

HT Away Win32.6%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.5%

HT Home Win26.6%

HT/FT Away/Away25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Home/Home18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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