UEFA Europa Conference League

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

Kick-off 18:30 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Derry City 3.8% Draw 18.6% HNK Rijeka 77.6%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 23%

🎯 Best Pick

No Both Teams Score (NG)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 62%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 20.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

20.1%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

62%

Market does not fully agree

Derry City

L L L

Form 0-0-3 Goals 3:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

HNK Rijeka

Form 1-0-0 Goals 1:0 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0

Head to head · last 1

Derry City 0wins ·0 draws ·HNK Rijeka 1wins

Derry City 0-1 HNK RijekaJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Derry City win3.8%

Draw18.6%

HNK Rijeka win77.6%

Over 1.5 goals67.7%

Over 2.5 goals40.4%

Over 3.5 goals20.0%

Both teams to score23.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)95.4%

Draw No Bet - Away94.4%

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Away Win78.4%

Both Halves Over 0.546.3%

Goal in Both Halves46.3%

Exactly 1 Goal23.1%

Home or Draw (1X)21.6%

Draw17.0%

Draw No Bet - Home5.6%

Home Win4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.0%

Under 4.5 Goals91.6%

Over 0.5 Goals90.0%

Under 3.5 Goals80.0%

1-3 Goals69.9%

Over 1.5 Goals66.9%

Under 2.5 Goals59.6%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-3 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals40.4%

Under 1.5 Goals33.1%

3-4 Goals32.0%

Exactly 2 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 3.5 Goals20.0%

4+ Goals20.0%

Under 0.5 Goals10.0%

Exactly 0 Goals10.0%

Over 4.5 Goals8.4%

Over 5.5 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)77.6%

Away Clean Sheet74.1%

Away Win to Nil64.0%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)22.4%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil3.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Exactly 074.1%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away95.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)78.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away51.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home48.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.3%

Away to win by 3+27.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.7%

Away to win by 126.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw24.4%

Away to win by 224.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home21.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)4.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.0%

Home to win by 14.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.5%

Home to win by 20.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS64.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.553.6%

Away & Under 2.540.1%

Away & Over 2.538.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.0%

BTTS & Over 2.516.4%

Draw & Under 2.516.0%

Away & BTTS14.3%

Draw & BTTS7.0%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Home & Under 2.53.5%

Home & No BTTS3.5%

Home & Over 2.51.2%

Home & BTTS1.1%

Draw & Over 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.3%

HT Over 0.564.5%

HT Away Win54.6%

HT/FT Away/Away52.6%

2nd Half More Goals41.6%

HT Draw40.0%

HT Under 0.535.5%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

Equal Goals Each Half28.1%

HT Over 1.527.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away24.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT Both Teams Score7.5%

HT Home Win5.4%

HT/FT Home/Home2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.1%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Derry City win0%

Draw50%

HNK Rijeka win50%

AdviceCombo Double chance : draw or HNK Rijeka and -2.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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