Russia · Premier League

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv

Kick-off 16:30 · Sat, Aug 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)

57% confidence

Dinamo Makhachkala 57.0% Draw 29.0% Lokomotiv 14.0%

Over 2.5 - 38% BTTS - 40%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

High probability

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 56%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Under 2.5 Goals

Low scoring trend

65%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Dinamo Makhachkala has a slight edge over Lokomotiv with a home pi-rating of -0.08. The expected goals suggest a low-scoring match. With no significant injuries or suspensions, the home team's attacking threat is moderate. The away team's defense is relatively strong.

💡

Top Tip

Home or Draw is the safest bet given the home advantage and Lokomotiv's away struggles

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 86% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 14.0% on the only losing outcome.

High probability

Recent form leans to Dinamo Makhachkala: 11 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home or Draw (1X)

1X · Home or Draw

86%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

14%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

56%

Market does not fully agree

Dinamo Makhachkala

W W W D D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Lokomotiv

D L W D

Form 1-2-1 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dinamo Makhachkala win57.0%

Draw29.0%

Lokomotiv win14.0%

Over 1.5 goals66.0%

Over 2.5 goals37.9%

Over 3.5 goals18.1%

Both teams to score39.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Home78.3%

Home or Away (12)74.3%

Home Win58.2%

Both Halves Over 0.544.1%

Goal in Both Halves44.1%

Draw or Away (X2)41.8%

Draw25.7%

Exactly 1 Goal24.4%

Draw No Bet - Away21.7%

Away Win16.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.5%

Under 4.5 Goals92.8%

Over 0.5 Goals88.9%

Under 3.5 Goals81.9%

1-3 Goals70.9%

Over 1.5 Goals64.5%

Under 2.5 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals57.3%

1-2 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

2-3 Goals46.5%

Over 2.5 Goals37.7%

Under 1.5 Goals35.5%

3-4 Goals30.5%

Exactly 2 Goals26.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.7%

Over 3.5 Goals18.1%

4+ Goals18.1%

Under 0.5 Goals11.1%

Exactly 0 Goals11.1%

Over 4.5 Goals7.2%

Over 5.5 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)61.8%

Home Clean Sheet51.3%

Away Team to Score48.7%

Home Win to Nil40.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)38.2%

Away Clean Sheet21.6%

Away Win to Nil10.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.4%

Away Exactly 051.3%

Away Over 0.548.7%

Home Over 1.545.3%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Home Exactly 021.6%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Over 1.514.4%

Away Exactly 211.4%

Away Over 2.53.0%

Away 3+ Goals3.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.3%

Home to win by 127.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.9%

Home to win by 3+12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.4%

Away to win by 23.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.9%

Home & No BTTS40.2%

Home & Under 2.530.0%

Home & Over 2.528.2%

BTTS & Over 2.526.8%

Draw & Under 2.522.4%

Home & BTTS18.0%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

BTTS & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.9%

Away & No BTTS10.5%

Away & Under 2.59.9%

Away & Over 2.56.3%

Away & BTTS5.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.573.9%

HT Over 0.562.8%

HT Draw45.3%

2nd Half More Goals41.1%

HT Home Win40.4%

HT Under 0.537.2%

HT/FT Home/Home35.8%

1st Half More Goals30.0%

Equal Goals Each Half28.9%

HT Over 1.526.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.0%

HT Away Win14.3%

HT Both Teams Score12.9%

HT/FT Away/Away8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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