UEFA Europa Conference League

Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Dinamo Tirana 59.9% Draw 31.6% Aluminij 8.5%

Over 2.5 - 22% BTTS - 22%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 61%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 25.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Dinamo Tirana: 4 points versus 2 across the last 3 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

25.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

61%

Market does not fully agree

Dinamo Tirana

D W L

Form 1-1-1 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Aluminij

D L D

Form 0-2-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 1

Dinamo Tirana 0wins ·1 draws ·Aluminij 0wins

Dinamo Tirana 1-1 AluminijJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dinamo Tirana win59.9%

Draw31.6%

Aluminij win8.5%

Over 1.5 goals49.0%

Over 2.5 goals21.9%

Over 3.5 goals8.0%

Both teams to score21.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

92.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.4%

Draw No Bet - Home86.4%

Home or Away (12)70.6%

Home Win61.0%

Draw or Away (X2)39.0%

Exactly 1 Goal32.2%

Both Halves Over 0.530.3%

Goal in Both Halves30.3%

Draw29.4%

Draw No Bet - Away13.6%

Away Win9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.4%

Under 4.5 Goals97.6%

Under 3.5 Goals92.0%

Over 0.5 Goals80.0%

Under 2.5 Goals78.1%

1-3 Goals72.0%

1-2 Goals58.1%

Under 1.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even52.0%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Over 1.5 Goals47.9%

2-4 Goals45.4%

2-3 Goals39.8%

Exactly 2 Goals25.9%

Over 2.5 Goals21.9%

Under 0.5 Goals20.0%

Exactly 0 Goals20.0%

3-4 Goals19.5%

Exactly 3 Goals13.9%

Over 3.5 Goals8.0%

4+ Goals8.0%

Over 4.5 Goals2.4%

Over 5.5 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)79.6%

Home Team to Score72.1%

Home Clean Sheet71.7%

Home Win to Nil51.7%

Away Team to Score28.3%

Away Clean Sheet27.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)20.4%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.572.1%

Away Exactly 071.7%

Home Over 1.536.5%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Over 0.528.3%

Home Exactly 027.9%

Away Exactly 123.9%

Home Exactly 222.8%

Home Over 2.513.8%

Home 3+ Goals13.8%

Away Over 1.54.5%

Away Exactly 24.0%

Away Over 2.50.5%

Away 3+ Goals0.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw31.3%

Home to win by 131.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.9%

Home to win by 3+10.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 18.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.569.6%

Home & No BTTS51.7%

Home & Under 2.541.8%

Draw & Under 2.528.5%

Home & Over 2.519.2%

BTTS & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Draw & BTTS9.4%

Home & BTTS9.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

Away & Under 2.57.8%

Away & Over 2.51.8%

Away & BTTS1.7%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.583.5%

HT Draw52.7%

HT Over 0.551.6%

HT Under 0.548.4%

HT Home Win39.1%

2nd Half More Goals37.1%

HT/FT Home/Home36.5%

Equal Goals Each Half35.0%

1st Half More Goals27.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw24.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home23.4%

HT Over 1.516.5%

HT Away Win8.2%

HT Both Teams Score6.1%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Dinamo Tirana win45%

Draw45%

Aluminij win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Dinamo Tirana or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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