UEFA Europa Conference League

Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Dinamo Tirana 91.1% Draw 6.8% Pafos 2.1%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Dinamo Tirana: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.25 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Dinamo Tirana

W L W D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Pafos

D L W L

Form 1-1-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dinamo Tirana win91.1%

Draw6.8%

Pafos win2.1%

Over 1.5 goals93.5%

Over 2.5 goals80.9%

Over 3.5 goals63.1%

Both teams to score43.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Home Win

90.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.4%

Home or Draw (1X)96.0%

Home or Away (12)92.4%

Home Win90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.578.3%

Goal in Both Halves78.3%

Draw or Away (X2)8.4%

Draw6.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Draw No Bet - Away2.6%

Away Win2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals79.6%

Under 5.5 Goals73.9%

Over 3.5 Goals62.1%

4+ Goals62.1%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

2-4 Goals48.8%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.9%

3-4 Goals36.8%

1-3 Goals35.1%

2-3 Goals29.6%

Over 5.5 Goals26.1%

Under 2.5 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

1-2 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.5%

Home Clean Sheet54.9%

Home Win to Nil53.7%

Away Team to Score43.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.5%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.6%

Home Over 2.571.4%

Home 3+ Goals71.4%

Away Exactly 054.9%

Away Over 0.543.5%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Home Exactly 216.2%

Away Over 1.511.4%

Away Exactly 29.3%

Home Exactly 18.5%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Away Over 2.52.1%

Away 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away74.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home59.8%

Home to win by 3+59.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away58.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)40.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home40.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away38.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away20.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.4%

Home to win by 112.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 11.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.2%

Home & No BTTS53.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.539.9%

BTTS & Over 2.539.7%

Home & BTTS36.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.0%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Draw & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.4%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Home Win73.9%

HT/FT Home/Home72.4%

HT Over 1.558.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT Both Teams Score18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT Away Win5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Away/Away1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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