UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Dinamo Zagreb 74.9% Draw 11.5% NEC Nijmegen 13.6%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Dinamo Zagreb: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Dinamo Zagreb

L D W W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

NEC Nijmegen

D D D L D L

Form 0-4-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dinamo Zagreb win74.9%

Draw11.5%

NEC Nijmegen win13.6%

Over 1.5 goals99.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.1%

Over 3.5 goals89.6%

Both teams to score87.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.6%

Goal in Both Halves92.6%

Home or Away (12)85.2%

Draw No Bet - Home84.5%

Home or Draw (1X)82.8%

Home Win72.0%

Draw or Away (X2)23.9%

Draw No Bet - Away15.5%

Away Win13.2%

Draw10.7%

Exactly 1 Goal0.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.2%

Over 3.5 Goals85.9%

4+ Goals85.9%

Over 4.5 Goals75.5%

Over 5.5 Goals61.6%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals38.4%

Under 4.5 Goals24.5%

2-4 Goals19.5%

3-4 Goals16.7%

Under 3.5 Goals14.1%

1-3 Goals9.9%

2-3 Goals9.0%

Under 2.5 Goals7.8%

Exactly 3 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.6%

Exactly 2 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score85.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.9%

Home Clean Sheet10.8%

Home Win to Nil10.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.585.1%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.561.4%

Away Over 2.535.7%

Away 3+ Goals35.7%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Away Exactly 123.7%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 010.8%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.2%

Home to win by 3+42.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 16.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.6%

Away to win by 3+2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.9%

Home & Over 2.570.2%

Home & BTTS61.3%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS12.2%

Home & No BTTS10.7%

Draw & BTTS10.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Home & Under 2.51.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.4%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.0%

HT Over 1.580.1%

HT Home Win61.5%

HT/FT Home/Home56.0%

HT Both Teams Score54.2%

2nd Half More Goals52.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw20.9%

HT Under 1.519.9%

HT Away Win17.6%

Equal Goals Each Half15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Away/Home6.3%

HT Under 0.55.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners79.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Over 9.5 Corners69.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners61.6%

Over 10.5 Corners57.9%

Under 11.5 Corners54.0%

Away Most Corners51.9%

Over 11.5 Corners46.0%

Under 10.5 Corners42.1%

Home Most Corners36.4%

Under 9.5 Corners30.5%

Under 8.5 Corners20.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards87.5%

Over 3.5 Cards73.5%

Under 5.5 Cards61.6%

Over 4.5 Cards56.0%

Under 4.5 Cards44.0%

Over 5.5 Cards38.4%

Under 3.5 Cards26.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.0%

Under 2.5 Cards12.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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