UEFA Europa Conference League

Dukagjini vs FC Lugano

Kick-off 15:30 · Wed, Jul 29

📊 Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)

50% confidence

Dukagjini 10.0% Draw 40.0% FC Lugano 50.0%

Over 2.5 - 15% BTTS - 18%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

High away win probability

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 81%

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 2.5 Goals

Low scoring expected

85%

No Both Teams Score (NG)

Low BTTS rate

80%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Dukagjini is in poor form, having lost their last match. FC Lugano has a strong defensive record, with a clean sheet in their last match. The away team has a significant attacking threat, but Dukagjini's home advantage is limited. The head-to-head record favors FC Lugano.

💡

Top Tip

Draw or Away is the strongest pick due to FC Lugano's high win probability and Dukagjini's struggles

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 90% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 10.0% on the only losing outcome.

High away win probability

Numbers behind this Draw or Away (X2)

X2 · Draw or Away

90%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

10%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

81%

Market agrees with this pick

Dukagjini

Form 0-0-1 Goals 0:1 Scored/game 0 Conceded/game 1

FC Lugano

Form 1-0-0 Goals 1:0 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0

Head to head · last 1

Dukagjini 0wins ·0 draws ·FC Lugano 1wins

Dukagjini 0-1 FC LuganoJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dukagjini win10.0%

Draw40.0%

FC Lugano win50.0%

Over 1.5 goals38.4%

Over 2.5 goals14.7%

Over 3.5 goals4.3%

Both teams to score17.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

89.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Away82.9%

Home or Away (12)63.9%

Away Win53.0%

Home or Draw (1X)47.0%

Draw36.1%

Exactly 1 Goal35.4%

Both Halves Over 0.522.6%

Goal in Both Halves22.6%

Draw No Bet - Home17.1%

Home Win11.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.8%

Under 4.5 Goals98.9%

Under 3.5 Goals95.7%

Under 2.5 Goals85.7%

Over 0.5 Goals72.7%

1-3 Goals68.4%

Under 1.5 Goals62.7%

1-2 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even53.7%

Total Goals Odd46.3%

Over 1.5 Goals37.3%

2-4 Goals36.3%

2-3 Goals33.0%

Under 0.5 Goals27.3%

Exactly 0 Goals27.3%

Exactly 2 Goals23.0%

Over 2.5 Goals14.3%

3-4 Goals13.2%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Over 3.5 Goals4.3%

4+ Goals4.3%

Over 4.5 Goals1.1%

Over 5.5 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)83.6%

Away Clean Sheet74.1%

Away Team to Score63.2%

Away Win to Nil46.8%

Home Clean Sheet36.8%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)16.4%

Home Win to Nil9.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Exactly 074.1%

Away Over 0.563.2%

Away Exactly 036.8%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Over 1.526.4%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Exactly 218.4%

Away Over 2.58.0%

Away 3+ Goals8.0%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away89.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw31.6%

Away to win by 131.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 215.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 19.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.4%

Away to win by 3+6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.4%

Home to win by 21.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.577.5%

Away & No BTTS46.8%

Away & Under 2.540.9%

Draw & Under 2.535.4%

Away & Over 2.512.1%

Home & No BTTS9.5%

Home & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & BTTS8.8%

BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & BTTS6.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.1%

Home & Over 2.51.6%

Home & BTTS1.4%

Draw & Over 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.588.3%

HT Draw59.1%

HT Under 0.555.7%

HT Over 0.544.3%

Equal Goals Each Half39.9%

2nd Half More Goals34.1%

HT Away Win32.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw31.6%

HT/FT Away/Away30.1%

1st Half More Goals26.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away22.1%

HT Over 1.511.7%

HT Home Win8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.4%

HT/FT Home/Home5.3%

HT Both Teams Score4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Dukagjini win0%

Draw50%

FC Lugano win50%

AdviceCombo Double chance : draw or FC Lugano and -2.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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