Scotland · Premiership

Dundee vs Aberdeen

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Dundee 42.9% Draw 26.5% Aberdeen 30.6%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 42%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Aberdeen: 9 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

42%

Market does not fully agree

Dundee

L W L W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Aberdeen

W L L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Dundee 2wins ·0 draws ·Aberdeen 3wins

Dundee 3-2 AberdeenMay 17, 2026

Dundee 3-2 AberdeenFeb 21, 2026

Dundee 1-3 AberdeenDec 6, 2025

Dundee 0-4 AberdeenOct 5, 2025

Dundee 1-2 AberdeenFeb 15, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dundee win42.9%

Draw26.5%

Aberdeen win30.6%

Over 1.5 goals75.6%

Over 2.5 goals50.6%

Over 3.5 goals28.6%

Both teams to score81.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.5%

Goal in Both Halves87.5%

Home or Away (12)84.1%

Home or Draw (1X)77.7%

Draw No Bet - Home74.5%

Home Win62.7%

Draw or Away (X2)36.4%

Draw No Bet - Away25.5%

Away Win21.4%

Draw15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals96.5%

Over 2.5 Goals90.6%

Over 3.5 Goals79.6%

4+ Goals79.6%

Over 4.5 Goals64.3%

Under 5.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals47.3%

Under 4.5 Goals35.7%

2-4 Goals32.2%

3-4 Goals26.3%

Under 3.5 Goals20.4%

1-3 Goals19.0%

2-3 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.0%

Under 2.5 Goals9.4%

1-2 Goals8.1%

Exactly 2 Goals5.9%

Under 1.5 Goals3.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score87.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.7%

Home Clean Sheet11.9%

Home Win to Nil11.5%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 0.587.1%

Home Over 1.584.9%

Home Over 2.566.1%

Home 3+ Goals66.1%

Away Over 1.561.9%

Away Over 2.535.1%

Away 3+ Goals35.1%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 125.3%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 011.9%

Home Exactly 110.9%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.2%

Home to win by 3+29.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.6%

Away to win by 110.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.5%

Home & Over 2.559.1%

Home & BTTS51.1%

Away & Over 2.519.7%

Away & BTTS18.6%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

Home & No BTTS11.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.2%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.8%

HT Over 1.571.4%

HT Home Win51.3%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score48.4%

HT/FT Home/Home43.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.6%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Away Win23.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT Under 0.58.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Dundee win10%

Draw45%

Aberdeen win45%

AdviceCombo Winner : Aberdeen and -3.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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