Scotland · Premiership

Dundee vs Kilmarnock

Kick-off 20:45 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Dundee 47.8% Draw 22.9% Kilmarnock 29.3%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Kilmarnock: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Dundee

D L W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Kilmarnock

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Dundee 1wins ·2 draws ·Kilmarnock 2wins

Dundee 1-3 KilmarnockMay 12, 2026

Dundee 2-2 KilmarnockApr 11, 2026

Dundee 2-1 KilmarnockDec 30, 2025

Dundee 0-0 KilmarnockAug 23, 2025

Dundee 2-3 KilmarnockMay 10, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dundee win47.8%

Draw22.9%

Kilmarnock win29.3%

Over 1.5 goals82.5%

Over 2.5 goals61.5%

Over 3.5 goals39.2%

Both teams to score84.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.0%

HT Over 0.5

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.580.6%

Goal in Both Halves80.6%

Home or Draw (1X)72.6%

Draw No Bet - Home66.7%

Home Win54.5%

Draw or Away (X2)45.3%

Draw No Bet - Away33.3%

Away Win27.2%

Draw18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals83.8%

Under 5.5 Goals68.4%

Over 3.5 Goals67.6%

4+ Goals67.6%

Under 4.5 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals48.9%

2-4 Goals45.3%

3-4 Goals34.9%

Under 3.5 Goals32.4%

Over 5.5 Goals31.6%

1-3 Goals31.2%

2-3 Goals26.7%

Under 2.5 Goals16.2%

Exactly 3 Goals16.2%

1-2 Goals15.0%

Exactly 2 Goals10.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.1%

Away Team to Score85.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.5%

Home Clean Sheet14.6%

Home Win to Nil13.6%

Away Clean Sheet6.7%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.1%

Away Over 0.585.2%

Home Over 1.574.9%

Away Over 1.557.2%

Home Over 2.550.4%

Home 3+ Goals50.4%

Away Over 2.530.2%

Away 3+ Goals30.2%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 224.5%

Home Exactly 118.1%

Away Exactly 014.6%

Home Exactly 06.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.1%

Home to win by 3+20.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 118.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.9%

Away to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.4%

Home & Over 2.548.3%

Home & BTTS40.9%

Away & Over 2.523.5%

Away & BTTS21.5%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Home & No BTTS13.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.56.2%

Draw & Under 2.56.1%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Away & Under 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.5%

HT Over 1.561.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Home Win44.2%

HT Both Teams Score40.8%

HT Under 1.538.4%

HT/FT Home/Home36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.5%

HT Away Win26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT Under 0.512.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions