Scotland · Premiership

Dundee vs ST Johnstone

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Dundee 52.4% Draw 24.7% ST Johnstone 22.8%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

59%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Dundee: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Dundee

L W L W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

ST Johnstone

L W L L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Dundee 3wins ·1 draws ·ST Johnstone 1wins

Dundee 2-0 ST JohnstoneMay 18, 2025

Dundee 1-1 ST JohnstoneMar 1, 2025

Dundee 3-1 ST JohnstoneJan 5, 2025

Dundee 1-2 ST JohnstoneOct 26, 2024

Dundee 2-1 ST JohnstoneMar 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Dundee win52.4%

Draw24.7%

ST Johnstone win22.8%

Over 1.5 goals75.9%

Over 2.5 goals51.3%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score60.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.8%

Draw No Bet - Home89.9%

Home or Away (12)86.9%

Home Win78.1%

Both Halves Over 0.574.4%

Goal in Both Halves74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)21.5%

Draw12.7%

Draw No Bet - Away10.1%

Away Win8.8%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals78.7%

Over 2.5 Goals76.0%

Under 4.5 Goals63.0%

Over 3.5 Goals56.5%

4+ Goals56.5%

2-4 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals43.5%

1-3 Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals34.0%

Under 2.5 Goals24.0%

1-2 Goals21.8%

Over 5.5 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.6%

Under 1.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score62.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.0%

Home Clean Sheet37.6%

Home Win to Nil35.8%

Away Clean Sheet4.8%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.580.3%

Away Over 0.562.0%

Home Over 2.558.2%

Home 3+ Goals58.2%

Away Exactly 037.6%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 1.525.4%

Home Exactly 222.1%

Away Exactly 217.8%

Home Exactly 114.5%

Away Over 2.57.5%

Away 3+ Goals7.5%

Home Exactly 04.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.0%

Home to win by 3+39.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 220.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 16.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.564.3%

BTTS & Over 2.553.7%

Home & BTTS42.3%

Home & No BTTS35.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.3%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Draw & BTTS10.9%

Draw & Under 2.57.2%

Away & Over 2.56.2%

Away & BTTS5.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.6%

HT Home Win60.3%

HT/FT Home/Home56.4%

HT Over 1.553.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw27.9%

HT Both Teams Score26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.2%

HT Under 0.516.4%

HT Away Win11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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