Spain · La Liga

Elche vs Barcelona

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Elche 17.8% Draw 19.3% Barcelona 62.8%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Barcelona: 6 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Elche

D D W L D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Barcelona

L W L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Elche 0wins ·0 draws ·Barcelona 5wins

Elche 1-3 BarcelonaJan 31, 2026

Elche 1-3 BarcelonaNov 2, 2025

Elche 0-4 BarcelonaApr 1, 2023

Elche 0-3 BarcelonaSep 17, 2022

Elche 1-2 BarcelonaMar 6, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Elche win17.8%

Draw19.3%

Barcelona win62.8%

Over 1.5 goals84.1%

Over 2.5 goals64.3%

Over 3.5 goals42.2%

Both teams to score64.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

88.6%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.5%

Draw or Away (X2)73.7%

Draw No Bet - Away66.5%

Both Halves Over 0.566.4%

Goal in Both Halves66.4%

Away Win52.2%

Home or Draw (1X)47.8%

Draw No Bet - Home33.5%

Home Win26.2%

Draw21.5%

Exactly 1 Goal11.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Under 5.5 Goals87.0%

Over 1.5 Goals85.4%

Under 4.5 Goals74.3%

Over 2.5 Goals66.1%

2-4 Goals59.7%

Under 3.5 Goals55.7%

1-3 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.3%

4+ Goals44.3%

2-3 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals33.9%

1-2 Goals30.5%

Over 4.5 Goals25.7%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals19.2%

Under 1.5 Goals14.6%

Over 5.5 Goals13.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.7%

Home Team to Score75.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.0%

Away Clean Sheet25.0%

Away Win to Nil21.7%

Home Clean Sheet13.3%

Home Win to Nil9.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.7%

Home Over 0.575.0%

Away Over 1.559.9%

Home Over 1.540.3%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Over 2.532.9%

Away 3+ Goals32.9%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Home Exactly 025.0%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Home Over 2.516.3%

Home 3+ Goals16.3%

Away Exactly 013.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)69.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home69.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away30.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.6%

Away to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.8%

Home to win by 114.8%

Away to win by 3+14.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.4%

Home to win by 27.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.0%

Home to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.8%

Away & Over 2.538.7%

Away & BTTS30.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.6%

Away & No BTTS21.7%

Home & Over 2.518.5%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Home & BTTS16.3%

Away & Under 2.513.5%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.4%

Home & No BTTS9.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.9%

Home & Under 2.57.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.4%

HT Under 1.554.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.3%

HT Away Win40.4%

HT Draw35.7%

HT/FT Away/Away33.1%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.7%

HT Home Win23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT Under 0.521.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.6%

HT/FT Home/Home15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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