Spain · La Liga

Elche vs Celta Vigo

Kick-off 13:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Elche 40.1% Draw 25.3% Celta Vigo 34.5%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 56%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 12.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Celta Vigo: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.9%

Exact-score model probability

Elche

W L D L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 10:16 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.67

Celta Vigo

W D D D L L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Elche 1wins ·0 draws ·Celta Vigo 4wins

Elche 1-3 Celta VigoMay 3, 2026

Elche 2-1 Celta VigoSep 28, 2025

Elche 0-1 Celta VigoApr 26, 2023

Elche 0-1 Celta VigoJan 6, 2023

Elche 0-1 Celta VigoMay 15, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Elche win40.1%

Draw25.3%

Celta Vigo win34.5%

Over 1.5 goals78.6%

Over 2.5 goals55.1%

Over 3.5 goals32.8%

Both teams to score56.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.8%

Under 4.5 Goals

89.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)77.6%

Home or Away (12)74.6%

Draw No Bet - Away70.0%

Away Win52.2%

Both Halves Over 0.550.5%

Goal in Both Halves50.5%

Home or Draw (1X)47.8%

Draw No Bet - Home30.0%

Draw25.4%

Home Win22.4%

Exactly 1 Goal20.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.8%

Over 0.5 Goals91.8%

Under 4.5 Goals89.1%

Under 3.5 Goals75.7%

Over 1.5 Goals71.3%

1-3 Goals67.5%

2-4 Goals60.4%

Under 2.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.2%

Over 2.5 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals34.7%

Under 1.5 Goals28.7%

Exactly 2 Goals25.6%

Over 3.5 Goals24.3%

4+ Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals10.9%

Under 0.5 Goals8.2%

Exactly 0 Goals8.2%

Over 5.5 Goals4.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score79.2%

Home Team to Score60.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)52.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.0%

Away Clean Sheet39.4%

Away Win to Nil31.2%

Home Clean Sheet20.8%

Home Win to Nil12.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.579.2%

Home Over 0.560.6%

Away Over 1.546.5%

Home Exactly 039.4%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 132.7%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Home Over 1.523.9%

Away Over 2.520.9%

Away 3+ Goals20.9%

Away Exactly 020.8%

Home Exactly 217.1%

Home Over 2.56.8%

Home 3+ Goals6.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away77.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.9%

Away to win by 124.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 114.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.4%

Away to win by 3+11.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.6%

Home to win by 25.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.0%

Home to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.542.4%

BTTS & Over 2.536.0%

Away & No BTTS31.2%

Away & Over 2.529.3%

Away & Under 2.523.0%

Away & BTTS21.1%

Draw & Under 2.520.2%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Home & No BTTS12.6%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Home & Over 2.511.2%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

Home & BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.0%

HT Over 0.567.5%

HT Draw42.8%

2nd Half More Goals42.6%

HT Away Win37.9%

HT Under 0.532.5%

HT/FT Away/Away32.0%

HT Over 1.531.0%

1st Half More Goals30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.7%

HT Home Win19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.8%

HT Both Teams Score17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.2%

HT/FT Home/Home12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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