Spain · La Liga

Elche vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 20:30 · Mon, Sep 7

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Elche 43.2% Draw 24.7% Real Sociedad 32.1%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Head-to-head record: Elche 0 wins, 1 draws, Real Sociedad 4 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Elche

L L D D W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Real Sociedad

D W L L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Elche 0wins ·1 draws ·Real Sociedad 4wins

Elche 1-3 Real SociedadFeb 7, 2026

Elche 1-1 Real SociedadNov 7, 2025

Elche 0-2 Real SociedadMar 19, 2023

Elche 0-1 Real SociedadAug 27, 2022

Elche 1-2 Real SociedadApr 10, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Elche win43.2%

Draw24.7%

Real Sociedad win32.1%

Over 1.5 goals78.4%

Over 2.5 goals55.1%

Over 3.5 goals32.8%

Both teams to score83.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.1%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Both Halves Over 0.573.1%

Goal in Both Halves73.1%

Draw or Away (X2)62.5%

Home or Draw (1X)58.4%

Draw No Bet - Away52.5%

Draw No Bet - Home47.5%

Away Win41.5%

Home Win37.5%

Draw20.9%

Exactly 1 Goal7.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals80.0%

Over 2.5 Goals74.8%

Under 4.5 Goals64.7%

Over 3.5 Goals54.8%

4+ Goals54.8%

2-4 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals45.2%

1-3 Goals43.1%

3-4 Goals39.5%

Over 4.5 Goals35.3%

2-3 Goals35.3%

Under 2.5 Goals25.2%

1-2 Goals23.2%

Over 5.5 Goals20.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.5%

Home Team to Score85.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.4%

Away Clean Sheet14.9%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Away Win to Nil12.9%

Home Win to Nil11.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.5%

Home Over 0.585.1%

Away Over 1.559.5%

Home Over 1.556.7%

Away Over 2.532.5%

Away 3+ Goals32.5%

Home Over 2.529.7%

Home 3+ Goals29.7%

Home Exactly 128.4%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Home Exactly 014.9%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.4%

Away to win by 212.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.1%

Home to win by 211.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.7%

Away to win by 3+10.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.9%

Home to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.9%

Away & Over 2.533.5%

Home & Over 2.530.1%

Away & BTTS28.6%

Home & BTTS26.1%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.5%

Away & No BTTS12.9%

Home & No BTTS11.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.3%

Draw & Under 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.8%

HT Over 1.552.5%

HT Under 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT Away Win34.6%

HT Both Teams Score34.2%

HT Draw33.3%

HT Home Win32.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Away/Away25.8%

HT/FT Home/Home23.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT Under 0.517.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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