Italy · Serie B

Empoli vs Arezzo

Kick-off 18:00 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Empoli 37.4% Draw 29.3% Arezzo 33.3%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.4%

Exact-score model probability

Empoli

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Arezzo

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📈 Probability Breakdown

Empoli win37.4%

Draw29.3%

Arezzo win33.3%

Over 1.5 goals75.7%

Over 2.5 goals49.2%

Over 3.5 goals27.3%

Both teams to score55.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

87.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

84.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.9%

Home or Draw (1X)65.1%

Draw or Away (X2)61.0%

Both Halves Over 0.553.3%

Goal in Both Halves53.3%

Draw No Bet - Home52.8%

Draw No Bet - Away47.2%

Home Win39.0%

Away Win34.8%

Draw26.1%

Exactly 1 Goal18.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.8%

Over 0.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals87.1%

Over 1.5 Goals74.1%

Under 3.5 Goals72.7%

1-3 Goals65.6%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.2%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Over 3.5 Goals27.3%

4+ Goals27.3%

Under 1.5 Goals25.9%

Exactly 2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals7.1%

Exactly 0 Goals7.1%

Over 5.5 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score74.5%

Away Team to Score72.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.3%

Home Clean Sheet27.9%

Away Clean Sheet25.5%

Home Win to Nil20.8%

Away Win to Nil18.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.574.5%

Away Over 0.572.1%

Home Over 1.539.6%

Away Over 1.536.5%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 134.8%

Away Exactly 027.9%

Home Exactly 025.5%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Home Over 2.515.8%

Home 3+ Goals15.8%

Away Over 2.513.7%

Away 3+ Goals13.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 119.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.5%

Home to win by 211.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 210.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.5%

Home to win by 3+6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.2%

Away to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.541.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.4%

Home & Over 2.522.7%

Home & No BTTS20.8%

Away & Over 2.520.0%

Draw & Under 2.519.5%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Away & No BTTS18.4%

Home & BTTS18.2%

Away & BTTS16.5%

Home & Under 2.516.4%

Away & Under 2.514.9%

BTTS & Under 2.512.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.5%

HT Under 1.566.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw42.2%

HT Over 1.533.3%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.5%

HT Home Win30.2%

HT Away Win27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.9%

HT/FT Home/Home23.0%

HT/FT Away/Away20.2%

HT Both Teams Score20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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