Italy · Serie B

Empoli vs Cremonese

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Empoli 54.5% Draw 25.9% Cremonese 19.6%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Empoli: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Empoli 1 wins, 0 draws, Cremonese 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.5%

Exact-score model probability

Empoli

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Cremonese

L W W L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Empoli 1wins ·0 draws ·Cremonese 1wins

Empoli 0-1 CremoneseApr 14, 2023

Empoli 2-0 CremoneseNov 11, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Empoli win54.5%

Draw25.9%

Cremonese win19.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.5%

Over 2.5 goals53.3%

Over 3.5 goals31.0%

Both teams to score54.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)79.5%

Home or Away (12)74.1%

Draw No Bet - Home72.3%

Home Win53.5%

Both Halves Over 0.547.4%

Goal in Both Halves47.4%

Draw or Away (X2)46.5%

Draw No Bet - Away27.7%

Draw25.9%

Exactly 1 Goal22.4%

Away Win20.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.7%

Under 4.5 Goals91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals90.5%

Under 3.5 Goals78.9%

1-3 Goals69.3%

Over 1.5 Goals68.1%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 2.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals48.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals32.8%

Under 1.5 Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.3%

Over 3.5 Goals21.1%

4+ Goals21.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Under 0.5 Goals9.5%

Exactly 0 Goals9.5%

Over 4.5 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.1%

Away Team to Score56.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.1%

Home Clean Sheet43.5%

Home Win to Nil34.0%

Away Clean Sheet21.8%

Away Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.1%

Away Over 0.556.5%

Home Over 1.544.9%

Away Exactly 043.5%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Home Exactly 133.2%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 021.8%

Away Over 1.520.3%

Home Over 2.519.6%

Home 3+ Goals19.6%

Away Exactly 215.1%

Away Over 2.55.2%

Away 3+ Goals5.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.8%

Home to win by 125.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 114.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.3%

Home to win by 3+11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.2%

Home & No BTTS34.0%

BTTS & Over 2.532.1%

Home & Over 2.528.1%

Home & Under 2.525.5%

Draw & Under 2.521.5%

Home & BTTS19.5%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Away & No BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.7%

Away & Over 2.59.3%

Away & BTTS8.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.4%

HT Over 0.565.3%

HT Draw44.2%

2nd Half More Goals41.9%

HT Home Win38.1%

HT Under 0.534.7%

HT/FT Home/Home32.7%

1st Half More Goals30.4%

HT Over 1.528.6%

Equal Goals Each Half27.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.6%

HT Away Win17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw17.2%

HT Both Teams Score15.5%

HT/FT Away/Away11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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