Italy · Serie B

Empoli vs Palermo

Kick-off 14:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Empoli 52.9% Draw 22.7% Palermo 24.4%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Empoli: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Empoli

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Palermo

W L L W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Empoli win52.9%

Draw22.7%

Palermo win24.4%

Over 1.5 goals88.7%

Over 2.5 goals70.1%

Over 3.5 goals48.9%

Both teams to score68.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.7%

Home Team to Score

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.4%

Home or Draw (1X)74.6%

Both Halves Over 0.569.5%

Goal in Both Halves69.5%

Draw No Bet - Home68.0%

Home Win54.0%

Draw or Away (X2)45.9%

Draw No Bet - Away32.0%

Away Win25.4%

Draw20.6%

Exactly 1 Goal9.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals87.6%

Under 5.5 Goals84.1%

Under 4.5 Goals70.2%

Over 2.5 Goals70.1%

2-4 Goals57.9%

Under 3.5 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals48.9%

4+ Goals48.9%

1-3 Goals48.4%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.7%

Under 2.5 Goals29.9%

Over 4.5 Goals29.8%

1-2 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals15.9%

Under 1.5 Goals12.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.6%

Away Team to Score76.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.2%

Home Clean Sheet23.4%

Home Win to Nil20.8%

Away Clean Sheet11.4%

Away Win to Nil8.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.6%

Away Over 0.576.5%

Home Over 1.563.8%

Away Over 1.542.5%

Home Over 2.537.0%

Home 3+ Goals37.0%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 124.7%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 023.4%

Away Over 2.517.9%

Away 3+ Goals17.9%

Home Exactly 011.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.6%

Home to win by 3+16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 114.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.4%

Home & Over 2.541.9%

Home & BTTS33.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.5%

Home & No BTTS20.8%

Away & Over 2.518.7%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Away & BTTS16.7%

Home & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

Away & No BTTS8.7%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.4%

HT Under 1.551.5%

HT Over 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

HT Home Win42.1%

HT/FT Home/Home34.7%

HT Draw34.2%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score29.9%

HT Away Win23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT/FT Away/Away14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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