Spain · La Liga

Espanyol vs Elche

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Espanyol 51.2% Draw 24.9% Elche 23.8%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Espanyol: 7 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Espanyol

L W D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Elche

L D L L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 8:16 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 5

Espanyol 2wins ·2 draws ·Elche 1wins

Espanyol 2-2 ElcheMar 1, 2026

Espanyol 1-0 ElcheOct 25, 2025

Espanyol 1-0 ElcheFeb 19, 2023

Espanyol 2-2 ElcheOct 23, 2022

Espanyol 1-2 ElcheJan 10, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Espanyol win51.2%

Draw24.9%

Elche win23.8%

Over 1.5 goals75.4%

Over 2.5 goals50.7%

Over 3.5 goals28.6%

Both teams to score64.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

86.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.3%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw No Bet - Home81.1%

Both Halves Over 0.571.2%

Goal in Both Halves71.2%

Home Win67.1%

Draw or Away (X2)32.7%

Draw No Bet - Away18.9%

Draw17.1%

Away Win15.6%

Exactly 1 Goal8.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.7%

Under 5.5 Goals82.4%

Over 2.5 Goals72.2%

Under 4.5 Goals67.8%

2-4 Goals56.5%

Over 3.5 Goals51.6%

4+ Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.4%

1-3 Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.2%

Over 4.5 Goals32.2%

Under 2.5 Goals27.8%

1-2 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.7%

Over 5.5 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.2%

Away Team to Score69.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.0%

Home Clean Sheet30.6%

Home Win to Nil28.2%

Away Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.2%

Home Over 1.572.5%

Away Over 0.569.3%

Home Over 2.547.3%

Home 3+ Goals47.3%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Over 1.533.1%

Away Exactly 030.6%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Away Exactly 221.4%

Home Exactly 119.7%

Away Over 2.511.7%

Away 3+ Goals11.7%

Home Exactly 07.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.7%

Home to win by 3+26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.8%

Away to win by 19.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.1%

Away to win by 24.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.9%

Home & Over 2.553.4%

Home & BTTS38.9%

Home & No BTTS28.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.4%

Draw & BTTS14.8%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Away & Over 2.511.2%

Away & BTTS10.3%

Draw & Under 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Away & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.5%

HT Home Win51.3%

HT Over 1.550.3%

HT Under 1.549.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT/FT Home/Home45.6%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.7%

HT Both Teams Score28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.1%

HT Under 0.518.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.6%

HT Away Win17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Away/Away8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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