Spain · La Liga

Espanyol vs Real Madrid

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Espanyol 21.0% Draw 23.6% Real Madrid 55.4%

Over 2.5 - 50% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 5.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 10 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Espanyol

W D W W L L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Real Madrid

W W W L W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Espanyol 1wins ·0 draws ·Real Madrid 4wins

Espanyol 0-2 Real MadridMay 3, 2026

Espanyol 0-2 Real MadridSep 20, 2025

Espanyol 1-0 Real MadridFeb 1, 2025

Espanyol 1-4 Real MadridSep 21, 2024

Espanyol 1-3 Real MadridMar 11, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Espanyol win21.0%

Draw23.6%

Real Madrid win55.4%

Over 1.5 goals74.2%

Over 2.5 goals49.6%

Over 3.5 goals27.7%

Both teams to score51.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.6%

Draw or Away (X2)72.8%

Draw No Bet - Away63.5%

Both Halves Over 0.553.2%

Goal in Both Halves53.2%

Home or Draw (1X)52.6%

Away Win47.4%

Draw No Bet - Home36.5%

Home Win27.2%

Draw25.4%

Exactly 1 Goal18.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.8%

Over 0.5 Goals92.8%

Under 4.5 Goals87.2%

Over 1.5 Goals74.0%

Under 3.5 Goals72.8%

1-3 Goals65.6%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.1%

2-3 Goals46.8%

1-2 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Over 3.5 Goals27.2%

4+ Goals27.2%

Under 1.5 Goals26.0%

Exactly 2 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 0 Goals7.2%

Over 5.5 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score78.5%

Home Team to Score66.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.6%

Away Clean Sheet33.3%

Away Win to Nil26.1%

Home Clean Sheet21.5%

Home Win to Nil14.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.578.5%

Home Over 0.566.7%

Away Over 1.545.4%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 033.3%

Away Exactly 133.0%

Home Over 1.530.1%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 021.5%

Home Exactly 220.1%

Away Over 2.520.0%

Away 3+ Goals20.0%

Home Over 2.510.0%

Home 3+ Goals10.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)27.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.3%

Away to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 214.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home10.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.7%

Away to win by 3+9.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.3%

Home to win by 27.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.1%

Home to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.8%

Away & Over 2.527.9%

Away & No BTTS26.1%

Away & BTTS21.2%

Away & Under 2.519.5%

Draw & Under 2.519.3%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Home & Over 2.515.0%

Home & No BTTS14.3%

Home & BTTS12.8%

Home & Under 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.5%

HT Under 1.566.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw41.9%

HT Away Win35.3%

HT Over 1.533.3%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.5%

HT/FT Away/Away28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half25.9%

HT Home Win22.8%

HT Both Teams Score19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.5%

HT/FT Home/Home15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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