France · Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Lens

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Estac Troyes 10.8% Draw 20.1% Lens 69.1%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lens: 4 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Estac Troyes 0 wins, 1 draws, Lens 3 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Estac Troyes

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:13 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.17

Lens

L W L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 4

Estac Troyes 0wins ·1 draws ·Lens 3wins

Estac Troyes 1-1 LensJan 28, 2023

Estac Troyes 0-1 LensSep 9, 2022

Estac Troyes 1-3 LensMay 14, 2022

Estac Troyes 0-4 LensNov 5, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estac Troyes win10.8%

Draw20.1%

Lens win69.1%

Over 1.5 goals76.7%

Over 2.5 goals92.4%

Over 3.5 goals29.9%

Both teams to score73.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

Home or Away (12)

89.1%

HT Over 0.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away92.6%

Draw or Away (X2)92.1%

Home or Away (12)89.1%

Away Win82.5%

Both Halves Over 0.581.4%

Goal in Both Halves81.4%

Home or Draw (1X)16.2%

Draw9.6%

Draw No Bet - Home7.4%

Home Win6.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals83.6%

Over 3.5 Goals68.0%

4+ Goals68.0%

Under 5.5 Goals67.9%

Under 4.5 Goals50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals49.5%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-4 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals32.1%

Under 3.5 Goals32.0%

1-3 Goals29.9%

2-3 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals16.4%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score64.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.1%

Away Clean Sheet34.1%

Away Win to Nil33.2%

Home Clean Sheet2.6%

Home Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.586.6%

Away Over 2.569.3%

Away 3+ Goals69.3%

Home Over 0.564.6%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Exactly 034.1%

Home Over 1.528.4%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Away Exactly 217.3%

Away Exactly 19.5%

Home Over 2.59.1%

Home 3+ Goals9.1%

Away Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)90.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)82.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home81.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home68.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away67.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home50.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)48.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away48.5%

Away to win by 3+48.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home31.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away30.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.6%

Away to win by 218.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away17.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home16.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 115.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw9.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away8.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.5%

Home to win by 14.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.6%

Home to win by 21.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.6%

Home to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.573.2%

BTTS & Over 2.559.4%

Away & BTTS49.3%

Away & No BTTS33.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Away & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & BTTS8.7%

Home & Over 2.55.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Home & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Home & No BTTS1.7%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Away Win66.2%

HT/FT Away/Away62.9%

HT Over 1.562.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Under 1.537.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score30.7%

HT Draw23.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.6%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT Home Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

HT/FT Home/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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