France · Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Estac Troyes 14.3% Draw 21.0% Marseille 64.6%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Marseille: 5 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Estac Troyes 0 wins, 1 draws, Marseille 3 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Estac Troyes

L L L W D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Marseille

L L L L W W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

Estac Troyes 0wins ·1 draws ·Marseille 3wins

Estac Troyes 1-3 MarseilleApr 16, 2023

Estac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleJan 11, 2023

Estac Troyes 1-1 MarseilleFeb 27, 2022

Estac Troyes 0-1 MarseilleNov 28, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estac Troyes win14.3%

Draw21.0%

Marseille win64.6%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals57.1%

Over 3.5 goals35.4%

Both teams to score60.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

86.3%

Under 4.5 Goals

86.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.5%

Draw or Away (X2)67.8%

Home or Draw (1X)57.7%

Draw No Bet - Away56.8%

Both Halves Over 0.554.8%

Goal in Both Halves54.8%

Draw No Bet - Home43.2%

Away Win42.3%

Home Win32.2%

Draw25.5%

Exactly 1 Goal17.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.2%

Over 0.5 Goals93.4%

Under 4.5 Goals86.0%

Over 1.5 Goals75.5%

Under 3.5 Goals70.9%

1-3 Goals64.3%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.8%

2-3 Goals46.5%

1-2 Goals42.3%

3-4 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals29.1%

4+ Goals29.1%

Under 1.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 2 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.0%

Under 0.5 Goals6.6%

Exactly 0 Goals6.6%

Over 5.5 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.0%

Home Team to Score71.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.0%

Away Clean Sheet28.6%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Away Win to Nil22.0%

Home Win to Nil16.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.0%

Home Over 0.571.4%

Away Over 1.543.2%

Home Exactly 135.8%

Home Over 1.535.6%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 028.6%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Home Exactly 222.4%

Away Over 2.518.4%

Away 3+ Goals18.4%

Home Over 2.513.2%

Home 3+ Goals13.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.8%

Away to win by 121.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.1%

Home to win by 29.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.9%

Away to win by 3+7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.6%

Home to win by 3+4.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.7%

Away & Over 2.525.5%

Away & No BTTS22.0%

Away & BTTS20.2%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Home & Over 2.518.8%

Draw & Under 2.518.7%

Away & Under 2.516.8%

Home & No BTTS16.4%

Home & BTTS15.8%

Home & Under 2.513.4%

BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.6%

HT Under 1.565.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.5%

HT Draw41.4%

HT Over 1.534.6%

HT Away Win32.4%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.4%

HT Home Win26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half25.4%

HT/FT Away/Away25.3%

HT Both Teams Score20.8%

HT/FT Home/Home18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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