Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Arouca

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Sep 7

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Estoril 44.9% Draw 21.7% Arouca 33.4%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arouca: 2 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Estoril

L L L D L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:11 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Arouca

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Estoril 2wins ·1 draws ·Arouca 2wins

Estoril 2-3 AroucaApr 6, 2026

Estoril 4-3 AroucaNov 7, 2025

Estoril 1-1 AroucaMar 16, 2025

Estoril 4-1 AroucaOct 26, 2024

Estoril 1-2 AroucaJan 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estoril win44.9%

Draw21.7%

Arouca win33.4%

Over 1.5 goals84.5%

Over 2.5 goals65.4%

Over 3.5 goals43.5%

Both teams to score49.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Draw or Away (X2)78.3%

Draw No Bet - Away73.2%

Both Halves Over 0.570.8%

Goal in Both Halves70.8%

Away Win59.0%

Home or Draw (1X)40.9%

Draw No Bet - Home26.8%

Home Win21.6%

Draw19.3%

Exactly 1 Goal9.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.5%

Under 5.5 Goals82.7%

Over 2.5 Goals71.8%

Under 4.5 Goals68.3%

2-4 Goals56.8%

Over 3.5 Goals51.0%

4+ Goals51.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals49.0%

1-3 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals31.7%

Under 2.5 Goals28.2%

1-2 Goals25.7%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.3%

Exactly 2 Goals16.7%

Under 1.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.4%

Home Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.4%

Away Clean Sheet25.2%

Away Win to Nil22.8%

Home Clean Sheet9.6%

Home Win to Nil7.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.4%

Home Over 0.574.7%

Away Over 1.567.9%

Away Over 2.541.6%

Away 3+ Goals41.6%

Home Over 1.540.0%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 025.2%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 122.4%

Home Over 2.516.1%

Home 3+ Goals16.1%

Away Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)59.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home40.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 121.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.3%

Away to win by 3+20.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.5%

Home to win by 112.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.0%

Home to win by 26.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.1%

Home to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.8%

Away & Over 2.546.7%

Away & BTTS36.2%

Away & No BTTS22.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Home & Over 2.516.0%

Home & BTTS14.5%

Away & Under 2.512.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.0%

Draw & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Home & No BTTS7.1%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.3%

HT Under 1.550.1%

HT Over 1.549.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Away Win45.6%

HT/FT Away/Away38.8%

HT Draw33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.1%

HT Home Win21.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Under 0.518.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.3%

HT/FT Home/Home12.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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