Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Casa Pia

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Estoril 58.7% Draw 22.3% Casa Pia 19.0%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 16%

🎯 Best Pick

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 23.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Estoril: 2 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 0.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

23.3%

Exact-score model probability

Estoril

L D L L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 2:8 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Casa Pia

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 1:15 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 5

Estoril 1wins ·3 draws ·Casa Pia 1wins

Estoril 0-0 Casa PiaMar 7, 2026

Estoril 2-2 Casa PiaOct 3, 2025

Estoril 3-1 Casa PiaApr 29, 2025

Estoril 0-2 Casa PiaDec 15, 2024

Estoril 0-0 Casa PiaApr 8, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estoril win58.7%

Draw22.3%

Casa Pia win19.0%

Over 1.5 goals75.3%

Over 2.5 goals51.3%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score16.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Under 1.5

86.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)76.9%

Draw No Bet - Home63.5%

Home or Away (12)63.2%

Draw or Away (X2)59.9%

Home Win40.1%

Draw36.8%

Draw No Bet - Away36.5%

Exactly 1 Goal34.0%

Both Halves Over 0.526.5%

Goal in Both Halves26.5%

Away Win23.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.6%

Under 4.5 Goals98.3%

Under 3.5 Goals94.0%

Under 2.5 Goals82.0%

Over 0.5 Goals76.7%

1-3 Goals70.6%

1-2 Goals58.7%

Under 1.5 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Even52.7%

Total Goals Odd47.3%

Over 1.5 Goals42.7%

2-4 Goals41.0%

2-3 Goals36.7%

Exactly 2 Goals24.7%

Under 0.5 Goals23.3%

Exactly 0 Goals23.3%

Over 2.5 Goals18.0%

3-4 Goals16.3%

Exactly 3 Goals12.0%

Over 3.5 Goals6.0%

4+ Goals6.0%

Over 4.5 Goals1.7%

Over 5.5 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)74.3%

Home Team to Score58.2%

Home Clean Sheet55.8%

Away Team to Score44.2%

Away Clean Sheet41.8%

Home Win to Nil32.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)25.7%

Away Win to Nil18.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.558.2%

Away Exactly 055.8%

Away Over 0.544.2%

Home Exactly 041.8%

Home Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 132.5%

Home Over 1.521.7%

Home Exactly 215.9%

Away Over 1.511.6%

Away Exactly 29.5%

Home Over 2.55.8%

Home 3+ Goals5.8%

Away Over 2.52.1%

Away 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.0%

Home to win by 126.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 210.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.7%

Home to win by 3+3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.570.1%

Draw & Under 2.535.2%

Home & No BTTS32.5%

Home & Under 2.529.2%

Away & No BTTS18.5%

Away & Under 2.517.6%

BTTS & Over 2.513.8%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

Home & Over 2.510.9%

Home & BTTS7.6%

Away & Over 2.55.5%

Away & BTTS4.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.54.2%

Draw & Over 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.586.0%

HT Draw57.4%

HT Under 0.552.0%

HT Over 0.548.0%

Equal Goals Each Half37.3%

2nd Half More Goals35.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw29.9%

1st Half More Goals27.1%

HT Home Win26.2%

HT/FT Home/Home22.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT Away Win16.4%

HT Over 1.514.0%

HT/FT Away/Away12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT Both Teams Score7.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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