Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Famalicao

Kick-off 20:15 · Fri, Aug 7

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Estoril 36.0% Draw 25.9% Famalicao 38.1%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 47%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 68%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Famalicao: 2 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Estoril 2 wins, 0 draws, Famalicao 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

68%

Market does not fully agree

Estoril

L D D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Famalicao

W D D W D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Estoril 2wins ·0 draws ·Famalicao 3wins

Estoril 0-1 FamalicaoApr 26, 2026

Estoril 0-4 FamalicaoDec 14, 2025

Estoril 0-3 FamalicaoApr 12, 2025

Estoril 2-1 FamalicaoDec 1, 2024

Estoril 1-0 FamalicaoApr 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estoril win36.0%

Draw25.9%

Famalicao win38.1%

Over 1.5 goals73.2%

Over 2.5 goals48.4%

Over 3.5 goals26.6%

Both teams to score46.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

89.9%

Draw or Away (X2)

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)88.6%

Draw No Bet - Away86.0%

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Away Win69.5%

Both Halves Over 0.555.7%

Goal in Both Halves55.7%

Home or Draw (1X)30.5%

Draw19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal17.4%

Draw No Bet - Home14.0%

Home Win11.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.8%

Over 0.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.3%

Over 1.5 Goals76.3%

Under 3.5 Goals70.0%

1-3 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.8%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals30.0%

4+ Goals30.0%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.3%

Home Team to Score50.0%

Away Clean Sheet49.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.7%

Away Win to Nil43.7%

Home Clean Sheet12.6%

Home Win to Nil6.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.4%

Away Over 1.561.3%

Home Over 0.550.0%

Home Exactly 049.9%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Over 2.534.3%

Away 3+ Goals34.3%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.1%

Home Over 1.515.4%

Away Exactly 012.6%

Home Exactly 212.0%

Home Over 2.53.3%

Home 3+ Goals3.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home76.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home55.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away44.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.9%

Away to win by 124.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.3%

Away to win by 3+23.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 221.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.3%

Home to win by 18.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.4%

Home to win by 22.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.6%

Home to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS43.7%

Away & Over 2.543.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.7%

BTTS & Over 2.534.7%

Away & Under 2.526.5%

Away & BTTS25.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.5%

Draw & Under 2.515.3%

Draw & BTTS12.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Home & No BTTS6.3%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Over 2.55.4%

Home & BTTS5.0%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.2%

HT Under 1.564.6%

HT Away Win50.1%

HT/FT Away/Away46.0%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw37.8%

HT Over 1.535.4%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.8%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.9%

HT Both Teams Score16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.3%

HT Home Win12.1%

HT/FT Home/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Estoril win0%

Draw50%

Famalicao win50%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Famalicao

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions