Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Moreirense

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Estoril 48.2% Draw 24.2% Moreirense 27.6%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Moreirense: 1 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12%

Exact-score model probability

Estoril

L L L D L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Moreirense

L D W L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Estoril 0wins ·3 draws ·Moreirense 2wins

Estoril 0-1 MoreirenseApr 20, 2026

Estoril 3-3 MoreirenseDec 7, 2025

Estoril 2-2 MoreirenseMay 11, 2025

Estoril 2-2 MoreirenseDec 28, 2024

Estoril 1-2 MoreirenseMay 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estoril win48.2%

Draw24.2%

Moreirense win27.6%

Over 1.5 goals74.9%

Over 2.5 goals50.9%

Over 3.5 goals28.8%

Both teams to score48.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

85.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

85.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.7%

Draw or Away (X2)66.1%

Home or Draw (1X)59.2%

Both Halves Over 0.555.9%

Goal in Both Halves55.9%

Draw No Bet - Away54.6%

Draw No Bet - Home45.4%

Away Win40.8%

Home Win33.9%

Draw25.3%

Exactly 1 Goal17.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.8%

Under 5.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.1%

Over 1.5 Goals76.5%

Under 3.5 Goals69.6%

1-3 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.4%

2-3 Goals46.2%

1-2 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals37.7%

Over 3.5 Goals30.4%

4+ Goals30.4%

Exactly 2 Goals24.0%

Under 1.5 Goals23.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.9%

Over 5.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.2%

Exactly 0 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score76.9%

Home Team to Score73.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.8%

Away Clean Sheet26.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.1%

Away Win to Nil20.7%

Home Win to Nil16.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.576.9%

Home Over 0.573.1%

Away Over 1.543.1%

Home Over 1.537.8%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 026.9%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Away Exactly 023.1%

Away Over 2.518.3%

Away 3+ Goals18.3%

Home Over 2.514.6%

Home 3+ Goals14.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.2%

Away to win by 121.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.7%

Home to win by 29.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.5%

Away to win by 3+7.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.5%

Away & Over 2.525.0%

Away & No BTTS20.7%

Home & Over 2.520.4%

Away & BTTS20.1%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.2%

Home & BTTS17.0%

Home & No BTTS16.9%

Away & Under 2.515.8%

Home & Under 2.513.5%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.4%

HT Under 1.564.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT Draw40.9%

HT Over 1.535.6%

HT Away Win31.7%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.6%

HT Home Win27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.1%

HT/FT Away/Away24.3%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Home/Home19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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