Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Rio Ave

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Estoril 57.6% Draw 21.0% Rio Ave 21.3%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Estoril: 3 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.3%

Exact-score model probability

Estoril

L D L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Rio Ave

L L D L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 2:10 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Estoril 2wins ·2 draws ·Rio Ave 1wins

Estoril 1-2 Rio AveMar 22, 2026

Estoril 4-0 Rio AveNov 1, 2025

Estoril 2-1 Rio AveFeb 22, 2025

Estoril 2-2 Rio AveSep 21, 2024

Estoril 1-1 Rio AveJan 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estoril win57.6%

Draw21.0%

Rio Ave win21.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.0%

Over 2.5 goals58.3%

Over 3.5 goals35.9%

Both teams to score57.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

92.0%

Under 5.5 Goals

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.6%

Draw or Away (X2)65.1%

Home or Draw (1X)59.3%

Both Halves Over 0.559.3%

Goal in Both Halves59.3%

Draw No Bet - Away53.9%

Draw No Bet - Home46.1%

Away Win40.7%

Home Win34.9%

Draw24.4%

Exactly 1 Goal15.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.9%

Under 4.5 Goals82.0%

Over 1.5 Goals79.6%

Under 3.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.3%

Over 2.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.0%

Under 2.5 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals39.0%

1-2 Goals37.9%

Over 3.5 Goals34.6%

4+ Goals34.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.4%

Over 4.5 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score78.8%

Home Team to Score75.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.3%

Away Clean Sheet24.2%

Home Clean Sheet21.2%

Away Win to Nil19.1%

Home Win to Nil16.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.578.8%

Home Over 0.575.8%

Away Over 1.545.9%

Home Over 1.541.4%

Home Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 024.2%

Away Exactly 021.2%

Away Over 2.520.4%

Away 3+ Goals20.4%

Home Over 2.517.1%

Home 3+ Goals17.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.6%

Away to win by 120.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 210.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.0%

Away to win by 3+8.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.9%

Home to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.7%

Away & Over 2.526.6%

Home & Over 2.522.4%

Away & BTTS21.7%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS19.1%

Home & BTTS18.8%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

Home & No BTTS16.1%

Away & Under 2.514.1%

Home & Under 2.512.4%

BTTS & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.7%

HT Under 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT Draw39.4%

HT Over 1.538.6%

HT Away Win32.1%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Home Win28.5%

HT Under 0.526.3%

HT/FT Away/Away24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.2%

HT Both Teams Score23.7%

HT/FT Home/Home20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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