Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estrela vs Benfica

Kick-off 21:30 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Estrela 8.3% Draw 12.8% Benfica 78.7%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 4 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Estrela

L L L L D W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Benfica

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Estrela 0wins ·0 draws ·Benfica 5wins

Estrela 0-4 BenficaJan 25, 2026

Estrela 0-1 BenficaAug 16, 2025

Estrela 2-3 BenficaFeb 2, 2025

Estrela 0-1 BenficaAug 24, 2024

Estrela 1-4 BenficaJan 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estrela win8.3%

Draw12.8%

Benfica win78.7%

Over 1.5 goals85.7%

Over 2.5 goals67.5%

Over 3.5 goals45.8%

Both teams to score73.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

HT Over 0.5

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away93.5%

Draw or Away (X2)92.6%

Home or Away (12)89.6%

Away Win83.8%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Home or Draw (1X)14.6%

Draw8.8%

Draw No Bet - Home6.5%

Home Win5.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.8%

Over 2.5 Goals84.6%

Over 3.5 Goals69.7%

4+ Goals69.7%

Under 5.5 Goals65.9%

Over 4.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals48.4%

2-4 Goals42.2%

Over 5.5 Goals34.1%

3-4 Goals33.0%

Under 3.5 Goals30.3%

1-3 Goals27.9%

2-3 Goals24.1%

Under 2.5 Goals15.4%

Exactly 3 Goals14.9%

1-2 Goals13.0%

Exactly 2 Goals9.2%

Under 1.5 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.2%

Home Team to Score63.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.6%

Away Clean Sheet34.5%

Away Win to Nil33.7%

Home Clean Sheet2.2%

Home Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.2%

Away Over 1.587.7%

Away Over 2.571.5%

Away 3+ Goals71.5%

Home Over 0.563.9%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Exactly 034.5%

Home Over 1.527.7%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 216.2%

Home Over 2.58.8%

Home 3+ Goals8.8%

Away Exactly 18.5%

Away Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)89.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home79.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)69.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away69.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home65.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)51.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away51.2%

Away to win by 3+51.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home47.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away33.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home29.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away18.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.1%

Away to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home14.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw14.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away9.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.0%

Home to win by 14.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.4%

Home to win by 21.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.5%

Home to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.575.1%

BTTS & Over 2.559.3%

Away & BTTS50.0%

Away & No BTTS33.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.525.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.7%

Away & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & BTTS8.0%

Draw & Over 2.54.9%

Home & Over 2.54.6%

Home & BTTS4.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Home & No BTTS1.5%

Home & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.7%

HT Away Win67.9%

HT/FT Away/Away64.9%

HT Over 1.564.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Under 1.535.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score30.8%

HT Draw22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.3%

HT Under 0.511.3%

HT Home Win9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Home/Home3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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