Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Full time · 0:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Estrela 49.8% Draw 25.4% Casa Pia 24.8%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 43%

✓ Pick was correct (0:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 12.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Estrela: 6 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Estrela 3 wins, 0 draws, Casa Pia 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.6%

Exact-score model probability

Estrela

L L D W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Casa Pia

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Estrela 3wins ·0 draws ·Casa Pia 2wins

Estrela 4-0 Casa PiaMar 20, 2026

Estrela 5-3 Casa PiaNov 1, 2025

Estrela 0-1 Casa PiaFeb 9, 2025

Estrela 0-1 Casa PiaAug 31, 2024

Estrela 3-1 Casa PiaMar 8, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estrela win49.8%

Draw25.4%

Casa Pia win24.8%

Over 1.5 goals69.5%

Over 2.5 goals43.9%

Over 3.5 goals22.9%

Both teams to score42.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.9%

Home Team to Score

85.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.6%

Draw No Bet - Home81.8%

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Home Win64.7%

Both Halves Over 0.555.2%

Goal in Both Halves55.2%

Draw or Away (X2)35.3%

Draw20.9%

Draw No Bet - Away18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal17.7%

Away Win14.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.0%

Over 0.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals85.7%

Over 1.5 Goals75.8%

Under 3.5 Goals70.5%

1-3 Goals64.1%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.4%

2-3 Goals46.4%

1-2 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals37.3%

Over 3.5 Goals29.5%

4+ Goals29.5%

Under 1.5 Goals24.2%

Exactly 2 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.5%

Exactly 0 Goals6.5%

Over 5.5 Goals6.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.8%

Away Team to Score54.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.8%

Home Clean Sheet45.4%

Home Win to Nil39.0%

Away Clean Sheet14.2%

Away Win to Nil7.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.8%

Home Over 1.558.0%

Away Over 0.554.6%

Away Exactly 045.4%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Home Over 2.531.0%

Home 3+ Goals31.0%

Home Exactly 127.7%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.518.7%

Home Exactly 014.2%

Away Exactly 214.1%

Away Over 2.54.6%

Away 3+ Goals4.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.1%

Home to win by 125.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.6%

Home to win by 3+19.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.2%

Away to win by 110.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.539.8%

Home & No BTTS39.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.4%

BTTS & Over 2.536.9%

Home & BTTS25.7%

Home & Under 2.524.9%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.7%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Away & No BTTS7.8%

Away & Over 2.57.2%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Away & BTTS6.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.9%

HT Under 1.565.1%

HT Home Win46.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.6%

HT/FT Home/Home41.9%

HT Draw39.0%

HT Over 1.534.9%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.1%

Equal Goals Each Half25.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.0%

HT Both Teams Score17.5%

HT Away Win14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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