Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estrela vs SC Braga

Kick-off 20:15 · Thu, Sep 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Estrela 20.1% Draw 20.6% SC Braga 59.3%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to SC Braga: 6 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Estrela

D D D D D D

Form 0-6-0 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

SC Braga

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Estrela 0wins ·3 draws ·SC Braga 2wins

Estrela 2-2 SC BragaMay 16, 2026

Estrela 3-3 SC BragaJan 3, 2026

Estrela 0-1 SC BragaJan 19, 2025

Estrela 1-1 SC BragaAug 11, 2024

Estrela 0-3 SC BragaMar 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estrela win20.1%

Draw20.6%

SC Braga win59.3%

Over 1.5 goals79.3%

Over 2.5 goals57.4%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score61.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

90.2%

Away Over 0.5

90.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)81.8%

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Draw No Bet - Away77.6%

Both Halves Over 0.568.0%

Goal in Both Halves68.0%

Away Win62.8%

Home or Draw (1X)37.1%

Draw No Bet - Home22.4%

Draw18.9%

Home Win18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal10.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.5%

Under 5.5 Goals85.6%

Under 4.5 Goals72.2%

Over 2.5 Goals68.2%

2-4 Goals58.8%

Under 3.5 Goals53.3%

1-3 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.7%

4+ Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals31.8%

1-2 Goals28.8%

Over 4.5 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Exactly 2 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals14.4%

Under 1.5 Goals13.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.2%

Home Team to Score69.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.3%

Away Clean Sheet30.5%

Away Win to Nil27.5%

Home Clean Sheet9.7%

Home Win to Nil6.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.2%

Home Over 0.569.5%

Away Over 1.567.6%

Away Over 2.541.2%

Away 3+ Goals41.2%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.3%

Home Exactly 030.5%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 122.6%

Home Exactly 221.5%

Home Over 2.511.8%

Home 3+ Goals11.8%

Away Exactly 09.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home77.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)62.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away40.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home37.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away22.2%

Away to win by 3+22.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.1%

Away to win by 122.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.6%

Away to win by 218.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 111.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.8%

Home to win by 24.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.1%

Home to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.5%

Away & Over 2.547.9%

Away & BTTS35.3%

Away & No BTTS27.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.5%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Away & Under 2.515.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Home & Over 2.512.6%

Home & BTTS11.4%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Home & No BTTS6.8%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.5%

HT Under 1.553.0%

HT Away Win47.7%

HT Over 1.547.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT/FT Away/Away41.6%

HT Draw33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score26.9%

Equal Goals Each Half21.9%

HT Under 0.520.5%

HT Home Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.5%

HT/FT Home/Home10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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