Portugal · Primeira Liga

Estrela vs Sporting CP

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Estrela 7.6% Draw 13.7% Sporting CP 78.6%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 92%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 2 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

92%

Market agrees with this pick

Estrela

D D L L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Sporting CP

W W W D D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Estrela 0wins ·0 draws ·Sporting CP 5wins

Estrela 0-1 Sporting CPApr 11, 2026

Estrela 0-4 Sporting CPNov 30, 2025

Estrela 0-3 Sporting CPMar 29, 2025

Estrela 1-5 Sporting CPNov 1, 2024

Estrela 1-2 Sporting CPMar 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Estrela win7.6%

Draw13.7%

Sporting CP win78.6%

Over 1.5 goals84.1%

Over 2.5 goals64.2%

Over 3.5 goals42.2%

Both teams to score77.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

90.7%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.5%

Home or Away (12)85.2%

Draw No Bet - Away84.6%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Away Win72.1%

Home or Draw (1X)27.5%

Draw No Bet - Home15.4%

Draw14.4%

Home Win13.1%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.6%

Over 3.5 Goals62.4%

4+ Goals62.4%

Under 4.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals43.1%

Under 3.5 Goals37.6%

3-4 Goals37.1%

1-3 Goals35.8%

2-3 Goals30.1%

Over 5.5 Goals26.4%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals12.3%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.8%

Home Team to Score72.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.2%

Away Clean Sheet27.4%

Away Win to Nil26.0%

Home Clean Sheet4.8%

Home Win to Nil3.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.8%

Away Over 1.580.2%

Home Over 0.572.2%

Away Over 2.558.1%

Away 3+ Goals58.1%

Home Over 1.536.9%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 027.4%

Home Exactly 222.8%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Away Exactly 114.6%

Home Over 2.514.0%

Home 3+ Goals14.0%

Away Exactly 04.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)72.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home65.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away53.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home46.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.9%

Away to win by 3+33.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home27.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 119.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.1%

Home to win by 18.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.5%

Home to win by 23.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.6%

Away & Over 2.562.0%

Away & BTTS46.0%

Away & No BTTS26.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

Home & Over 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.510.1%

Home & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Home & No BTTS3.5%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.8%

HT Over 1.558.0%

HT Away Win56.2%

HT/FT Away/Away50.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.542.0%

HT Both Teams Score32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.9%

HT Home Win15.8%

HT Under 0.514.2%

HT/FT Home/Home7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Estrela win0%

Draw50%

Sporting CP win50%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Sporting CP

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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