England · Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Everton 37.6% Draw 28.9% Chelsea 33.5%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Everton 1 wins, 1 draws, Chelsea 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Everton

D W D D D W

Form 2-4-0 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Chelsea

W L D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 18:14 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Everton 1wins ·1 draws ·Chelsea 3wins

Everton 3-0 ChelseaMar 21, 2026

Everton 0-2 ChelseaDec 13, 2025

Everton 0-1 ChelseaApr 26, 2025

Everton 0-0 ChelseaDec 22, 2024

Everton 0-6 ChelseaApr 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Everton win37.6%

Draw28.9%

Chelsea win33.5%

Over 1.5 goals75.5%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals27.4%

Both teams to score85.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.2%

HT Over 0.5

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Both Halves Over 0.579.8%

Goal in Both Halves79.8%

Home or Draw (1X)72.9%

Draw No Bet - Home67.0%

Home Win54.7%

Draw or Away (X2)45.2%

Draw No Bet - Away33.0%

Away Win26.9%

Draw18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals82.9%

Under 5.5 Goals69.9%

Over 3.5 Goals66.2%

4+ Goals66.2%

Under 4.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals47.3%

2-4 Goals46.6%

3-4 Goals35.6%

Under 3.5 Goals33.8%

1-3 Goals32.6%

Over 5.5 Goals30.1%

2-3 Goals27.7%

Under 2.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals16.7%

1-2 Goals15.9%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.8%

Away Team to Score84.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.4%

Home Clean Sheet15.3%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Away Clean Sheet7.0%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.8%

Away Over 0.584.5%

Home Over 1.574.2%

Away Over 1.555.9%

Home Over 2.549.4%

Home 3+ Goals49.4%

Away Over 2.529.0%

Away 3+ Goals29.0%

Away Exactly 128.7%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 118.6%

Away Exactly 015.3%

Home Exactly 07.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.0%

Home to win by 3+20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.7%

Away to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.3%

Home & Over 2.548.0%

Home & BTTS40.5%

Away & Over 2.523.0%

Away & BTTS21.0%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.56.4%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.0%

HT Over 1.560.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Home Win44.1%

HT Both Teams Score39.8%

HT Under 1.539.5%

HT/FT Home/Home36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.8%

HT Away Win26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT/FT Away/Away16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT Under 0.513.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions