England · League Cup

Everton vs Newcastle

Kick-off 20:45 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Everton 54.2% Draw 22.1% Newcastle 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 6 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Everton 2 wins, 2 draws, Newcastle 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Everton

L L D W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Newcastle

W L L W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Everton 2wins ·2 draws ·Newcastle 1wins

Everton 3-2 NewcastleFeb 28, 2026

Everton 1-4 NewcastleNov 29, 2025

Everton 1-0 NewcastleMay 25, 2025

Everton 0-0 NewcastleOct 5, 2024

Everton 1-1 NewcastleApr 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Everton win54.2%

Draw22.1%

Newcastle win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals89.8%

Over 2.5 goals72.2%

Over 3.5 goals51.4%

Both teams to score70.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.6%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.3%

Home or Draw (1X)73.7%

Draw No Bet - Home66.4%

Both Halves Over 0.565.8%

Goal in Both Halves65.8%

Home Win52.0%

Draw or Away (X2)48.0%

Draw No Bet - Away33.6%

Away Win26.3%

Draw21.7%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.9%

Under 4.5 Goals75.1%

Over 2.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals60.0%

Under 3.5 Goals56.6%

1-3 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.4%

4+ Goals43.4%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.7%

1-2 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.4%

Away Team to Score74.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.6%

Home Clean Sheet25.4%

Home Win to Nil22.0%

Away Clean Sheet13.6%

Away Win to Nil10.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.4%

Away Over 0.574.6%

Home Over 1.559.3%

Away Over 1.539.8%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Over 2.532.2%

Home 3+ Goals32.2%

Home Exactly 127.1%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 025.4%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Away Over 2.515.9%

Away 3+ Goals15.9%

Home Exactly 013.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 121.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.6%

Home to win by 3+14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 27.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.0%

Home & Over 2.538.3%

Home & BTTS30.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.2%

Home & No BTTS22.0%

Away & Over 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Away & BTTS16.1%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Away & No BTTS10.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.0%

HT Under 1.555.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.7%

HT Home Win40.2%

HT Draw36.0%

HT/FT Home/Home32.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.3%

HT Away Win23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT/FT Away/Away15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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