Netherlands · Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Groningen

Kick-off 15:45 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Excelsior 43.3% Draw 27.8% Groningen 28.9%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Excelsior 2 wins, 0 draws, Groningen 2 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Excelsior

D L D W W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Groningen

W D D L L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:12 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 4

Excelsior 2wins ·0 draws ·Groningen 2wins

Excelsior 3-2 GroningenMay 2, 2026

Excelsior 0-2 GroningenDec 5, 2025

Excelsior 0-3 GroningenFeb 25, 2023

Excelsior 1-0 GroningenJan 8, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Excelsior win43.3%

Draw27.8%

Groningen win28.9%

Over 1.5 goals79.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.5%

Over 3.5 goals31.9%

Both teams to score89.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.6%

Away Team to Score

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.582.4%

Goal in Both Halves82.4%

Home or Away (12)81.3%

Home or Draw (1X)65.2%

Draw No Bet - Home57.5%

Draw or Away (X2)53.0%

Home Win46.8%

Draw No Bet - Away42.5%

Away Win34.6%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals85.8%

Over 3.5 Goals70.8%

4+ Goals70.8%

Under 5.5 Goals64.8%

Over 4.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals47.3%

2-4 Goals42.4%

Over 5.5 Goals35.2%

3-4 Goals33.1%

Under 3.5 Goals29.2%

1-3 Goals28.2%

2-3 Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals15.0%

Under 2.5 Goals14.2%

1-2 Goals13.2%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score89.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.5%

Home Clean Sheet10.6%

Home Win to Nil9.8%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Away Over 0.589.2%

Home Over 1.572.9%

Away Over 1.565.4%

Home Over 2.547.7%

Home 3+ Goals47.7%

Away Over 2.538.7%

Away 3+ Goals38.7%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 123.8%

Home Exactly 119.4%

Away Exactly 010.6%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.6%

Home to win by 3+15.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 213.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.2%

Away to win by 3+9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.8%

Home & Over 2.542.0%

Home & BTTS36.9%

Away & Over 2.530.8%

Away & BTTS27.9%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

Home & No BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.0%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.4%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.6%

HT Over 1.563.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Both Teams Score43.7%

HT Home Win39.4%

HT Under 1.536.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home30.2%

HT Draw29.2%

HT/FT Away/Away21.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.1%

HT Under 0.511.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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