Netherlands · Eredivisie

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

Kick-off 19:00 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Excelsior 18.6% Draw 19.0% PSV Eindhoven 62.2%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 94%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 6.50 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Excelsior 0 wins, 0 draws, PSV Eindhoven 5 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Excelsior

W W D W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 18:7 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.17

PSV Eindhoven

D W W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 21:7 Scored/game 3.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Excelsior 0wins ·0 draws ·PSV Eindhoven 5wins

Excelsior 1-5 PSV EindhovenJan 10, 2026

Excelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenSep 27, 2025

Excelsior 0-2 PSV EindhovenApr 2, 2024

Excelsior 1-3 PSV EindhovenJan 13, 2024

Excelsior 0-4 PSV EindhovenApr 8, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Excelsior win18.6%

Draw19.0%

PSV Eindhoven win62.2%

Over 1.5 goals92.1%

Over 2.5 goals96.5%

Over 3.5 goals58.2%

Both teams to score93.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.9%

Home Team to Score

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.6%

Goal in Both Halves89.6%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Draw or Away (X2)72.4%

Draw No Bet - Away68.1%

Away Win56.8%

Home or Draw (1X)42.1%

Draw No Bet - Home31.9%

Home Win26.6%

Draw15.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals97.1%

Over 2.5 Goals92.5%

Over 3.5 Goals83.4%

4+ Goals83.4%

Over 4.5 Goals69.8%

Over 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals30.2%

2-4 Goals27.4%

3-4 Goals22.8%

Under 3.5 Goals16.6%

1-3 Goals15.3%

2-3 Goals13.8%

Exactly 3 Goals9.1%

Under 2.5 Goals7.5%

1-2 Goals6.2%

Exactly 2 Goals4.6%

Under 1.5 Goals2.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.9%

Home Team to Score90.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.2%

Away Clean Sheet8.3%

Away Win to Nil8.1%

Home Clean Sheet3.1%

Home Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 0.590.6%

Away Over 1.585.1%

Home Over 1.570.0%

Away Over 2.566.4%

Away 3+ Goals66.4%

Home Over 2.544.5%

Home 3+ Goals44.5%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 120.6%

Away Exactly 218.7%

Away Exactly 110.8%

Home Exactly 08.3%

Away Exactly 03.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home73.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home58.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)42.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home42.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away40.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away25.2%

Away to win by 3+25.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 215.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.0%

Home to win by 3+7.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.6%

Away & Over 2.554.4%

Away & BTTS48.8%

Home & Over 2.525.2%

Home & BTTS23.8%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

Draw & Over 2.513.0%

Away & No BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Home & No BTTS2.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.1%

HT Over 1.574.7%

HT Both Teams Score53.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Away Win47.7%

HT/FT Away/Away39.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win27.1%

HT Under 1.525.3%

HT Draw25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Home/Home16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.7%

HT Under 0.56.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.9%

HT/FT Home/Away5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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