Netherlands · Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Excelsior 47.7% Draw 27.2% Sparta Rotterdam 25.1%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Excelsior: 13 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Excelsior

L W W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 17:7 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Sparta Rotterdam

D W L L L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:14 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Excelsior 2wins ·0 draws ·Sparta Rotterdam 3wins

Excelsior 3-2 Sparta RotterdamMay 17, 2026

Excelsior 0-1 Sparta RotterdamSep 14, 2025

Excelsior 2-4 Sparta RotterdamFeb 17, 2024

Excelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamOct 1, 2023

Excelsior 1-4 Sparta RotterdamMar 5, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Excelsior win47.7%

Draw27.2%

Sparta Rotterdam win25.1%

Over 1.5 goals77.8%

Over 2.5 goals93.4%

Over 3.5 goals30.2%

Both teams to score76.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Both Halves Over 0.584.6%

Goal in Both Halves84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)83.0%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Home Win68.9%

Draw or Away (X2)30.3%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Away Win16.2%

Draw14.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals87.6%

Over 3.5 Goals74.2%

4+ Goals74.2%

Under 5.5 Goals60.5%

Over 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals42.9%

Over 5.5 Goals39.5%

2-4 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals30.6%

Under 3.5 Goals25.8%

1-3 Goals24.4%

2-3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals13.4%

Under 2.5 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals11.0%

Exactly 2 Goals7.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score81.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.4%

Home Clean Sheet17.8%

Home Win to Nil17.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Away Over 0.581.4%

Home Over 2.565.0%

Home 3+ Goals65.0%

Away Over 1.550.8%

Away Exactly 130.6%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.524.6%

Away 3+ Goals24.6%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Away Exactly 017.8%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.7%

Home to win by 3+33.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

Home to win by 217.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.1%

Home & Over 2.563.4%

Home & BTTS51.7%

Home & No BTTS17.2%

Away & Over 2.514.3%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

Away & BTTS13.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Under 2.54.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.0%

HT Over 1.566.9%

HT Home Win55.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT/FT Home/Home49.1%

HT Both Teams Score42.2%

HT Under 1.533.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Away Win19.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT Under 0.510.0%

HT/FT Away/Away9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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