Netherlands · Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Twente

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Excelsior 23.6% Draw 26.9% Twente 49.4%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Twente: 2 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Excelsior

L L L D L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 6:16 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.67

Twente

W L D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Excelsior 1wins ·2 draws ·Twente 2wins

Excelsior 0-0 TwenteJan 24, 2026

Excelsior 1-0 TwenteAug 30, 2025

Excelsior 0-3 TwenteFeb 10, 2024

Excelsior 2-4 TwenteDec 8, 2023

Excelsior 0-0 TwenteApr 1, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Excelsior win23.6%

Draw26.9%

Twente win49.4%

Over 1.5 goals78.9%

Over 2.5 goals94.0%

Over 3.5 goals31.5%

Both teams to score79.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

90.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.3%

Draw No Bet - Away90.2%

Home or Away (12)88.0%

Both Halves Over 0.582.0%

Goal in Both Halves82.0%

Away Win79.4%

Home or Draw (1X)19.5%

Draw10.9%

Draw No Bet - Home9.8%

Home Win8.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals84.5%

Over 3.5 Goals69.2%

4+ Goals69.2%

Under 5.5 Goals66.5%

Over 4.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals49.1%

2-4 Goals43.1%

Over 5.5 Goals33.5%

3-4 Goals33.5%

Under 3.5 Goals30.8%

1-3 Goals28.9%

2-3 Goals24.9%

Under 2.5 Goals15.5%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals13.6%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score69.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.5%

Away Clean Sheet29.4%

Away Win to Nil28.5%

Home Clean Sheet2.8%

Home Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.586.0%

Home Over 0.569.5%

Away Over 2.568.0%

Away 3+ Goals68.0%

Home Exactly 135.7%

Home Over 1.533.9%

Home Exactly 029.4%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Exactly 218.0%

Home Over 2.512.2%

Home 3+ Goals12.2%

Away Exactly 110.1%

Away Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)92.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home84.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)79.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home71.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)63.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away63.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home54.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away44.5%

Away to win by 3+44.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)35.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home35.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away27.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home19.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.7%

Away to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away14.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw8.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 15.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.2%

Home to win by 22.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.9%

Home to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.571.1%

BTTS & Over 2.563.9%

Away & BTTS50.9%

Away & No BTTS28.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Away & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Over 2.56.9%

Home & BTTS6.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Home & No BTTS2.0%

Home & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.4%

HT Away Win63.4%

HT Over 1.563.3%

HT/FT Away/Away59.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.7%

HT Both Teams Score33.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.5%

HT Home Win12.3%

HT Under 0.511.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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