Netherlands · Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Utrecht

Kick-off 11:15 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Excelsior 39.7% Draw 27.0% Utrecht 33.3%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Excelsior: 13 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Excelsior

D W W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Utrecht

L L D L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 7:18 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 3

Head to head · last 5

Excelsior 1wins ·2 draws ·Utrecht 2wins

Excelsior 5-0 UtrechtApr 26, 2026

Excelsior 1-4 UtrechtAug 24, 2025

Excelsior 1-1 UtrechtJan 27, 2024

Excelsior 2-2 UtrechtNov 12, 2023

Excelsior 0-1 UtrechtJan 25, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Excelsior win39.7%

Draw27.0%

Utrecht win33.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals94.3%

Over 3.5 goals34.0%

Both teams to score80.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Home or Draw (1X)84.9%

Both Halves Over 0.584.2%

Goal in Both Halves84.2%

Draw No Bet - Home83.4%

Home Win71.5%

Draw or Away (X2)27.6%

Draw No Bet - Away16.6%

Away Win14.2%

Draw13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.2%

Over 2.5 Goals87.1%

Over 3.5 Goals73.4%

4+ Goals73.4%

Under 5.5 Goals61.5%

Over 4.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals43.9%

2-4 Goals39.2%

Over 5.5 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals31.0%

Under 3.5 Goals26.6%

1-3 Goals25.0%

2-3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.7%

Under 2.5 Goals12.9%

1-2 Goals11.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.1%

Under 1.5 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score79.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.3%

Home Clean Sheet19.8%

Home Win to Nil19.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.585.0%

Away Over 0.579.3%

Home Over 2.566.1%

Home 3+ Goals66.1%

Away Over 1.547.4%

Away Exactly 131.9%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Away Over 2.521.7%

Away 3+ Goals21.7%

Away Exactly 019.8%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Home Exactly 111.0%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.2%

Home to win by 3+36.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 18.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.2%

Away to win by 3+2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.2%

Home & Over 2.565.5%

Home & BTTS52.3%

Home & No BTTS19.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.9%

Draw & BTTS12.8%

Away & Over 2.512.3%

Away & BTTS11.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.7%

HT Over 1.566.4%

HT Home Win57.2%

HT/FT Home/Home51.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Both Teams Score40.6%

HT Under 1.533.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT Away Win17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.510.3%

HT/FT Away/Away8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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