Russia · Premier League

Fakel vs Akhmat

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Aug 10

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

85% confidence

Fakel 20.0% Draw 17.0% Akhmat 63.0%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 46%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Akhmat to Score

Strong attack

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS trend

79%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Fakel is in poor form, losing their last two matches. Akhmat has a stronger pi-rating and is expected to score. With both teams scoring in most of their matches, this game is likely to have goals. Akhmat's attacking threat, led by their key players, will be difficult for Fakel to handle. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high expected goals and scoring trends of both teams.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 85% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

85%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Fakel high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Akhmat high-scoring games

20%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bookmaker implied chance

46%

Market does not fully agree

Fakel

L L

Form 0-0-2 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.5

Akhmat

L D D D W

Form 1-3-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fakel win20.0%

Draw17.0%

Akhmat win63.0%

Over 1.5 goals95.5%

Over 2.5 goals85.0%

Over 3.5 goals69.3%

Both teams to score78.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.3%

HT Over 0.5

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Both Halves Over 0.581.5%

Goal in Both Halves81.5%

Draw or Away (X2)79.5%

Draw No Bet - Away75.8%

Away Win63.3%

Home or Draw (1X)36.4%

Draw No Bet - Home24.2%

Home Win20.2%

Draw16.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals84.6%

Over 3.5 Goals69.0%

4+ Goals69.0%

Under 5.5 Goals66.8%

Over 4.5 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals49.4%

2-4 Goals43.9%

3-4 Goals34.0%

Over 5.5 Goals33.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.0%

1-3 Goals29.7%

2-3 Goals25.5%

Exactly 3 Goals15.6%

Under 2.5 Goals15.4%

1-2 Goals14.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.6%

Home Team to Score81.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.2%

Away Clean Sheet17.7%

Away Win to Nil16.9%

Home Clean Sheet5.0%

Home Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.6%

Home Over 0.581.9%

Away Over 1.579.7%

Away Over 2.557.3%

Away 3+ Goals57.3%

Home Over 1.551.2%

Home Exactly 130.6%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Over 2.524.8%

Home 3+ Goals24.8%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 017.7%

Away Exactly 114.9%

Away Exactly 05.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)63.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)55.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home55.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away44.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home36.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.2%

Away to win by 3+27.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.8%

Away to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 217.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 110.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.7%

Home to win by 25.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.6%

Home to win by 3+3.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.2%

Away & Over 2.556.6%

Away & BTTS46.4%

Home & Over 2.517.3%

Away & No BTTS16.9%

Home & BTTS16.1%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.4%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Home & No BTTS4.1%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.1%

HT Over 1.562.7%

HT Away Win50.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT/FT Away/Away43.4%

HT Both Teams Score40.0%

HT Under 1.537.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.1%

HT Home Win21.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.1%

HT Under 0.511.9%

HT/FT Home/Home11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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